to May 1] Market correction with AfD

AfD plunges to 18%33%

The sharp correction likely followed emerging concerns about AfD's ability to convert polling into actual seats, tactical voting against AfD, and continued political resistance.

AfD reaches a high of 51% in some polls nationwide, reflecting peak optimism

AfD surges to 51%38%

This peak reflected national enthusiasm for AfD amid ongoing electoral campaigns, though it was short-lived.

CDU's Kai Wegner confirmed as mayor after three rounds of voting, consolidating CDU control and further weakening SPD's chances to lead in Berlin

CDU's Kai Wegner confirmed as mayor after three rounds of voting, consolidating CDU control and further weakening SPD's chances to lead in Berlin

Berlin poll shows CDU at 19%, Greens and Left Party tied at 18% each

Grüne rises to 16%3%

Recent polls showing the Greens neck-and-neck with other major parties in Berlin raised market expectations for a stronger performance.

New Infratest Dimap poll shows CDU at 19%, tied closely with Greens, Linke, and AfD;

CDU dips to 53%3%

coalition dissatisfaction peaks with only 17% satisfied with CDU-SPD government; CDU loses lead in Berlin

InfraTest dimap and INSA polls show stable CDU lead, BSW below 5% threshold

BSW dips to 0%1%

April polls reinforced the narrative of BSW's weak electoral position, with no signs of significant momentum, sustaining the market's near-zero valuation for BSW winning the most seats.

Civey poll confirms CDU as frontrunner with 23%, BSW at 4%

BSW rises to 2%1%

A slight uptick in BSW polling in late March did not materially change market expectations, as CDU maintained a strong lead, keeping BSW's winning probability near zero.

AfD candidate Björn Höcke debates CDU's Mario Voigt live on WELT TV, increasing public exposure

AfD jumps to 18%5%

The televised debate highlighted AfD's political relevance and energized supporters, contributing to a.

SPD and CDU begin formal negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin, reflecting SPD's diminished position and need to cooperate under CDU leadership

SPD rises to 8%2%

SPD and CDU begin formal negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin, reflecting SPD's diminished position and need to cooperate under CDU leadership

INSA poll places AfD at 17% in Berlin, second behind CDU at 22%

AfD jumps to 18%7%

This strong polling result in Berlin suggested AfD's improving electoral chances, driving a significant.

Resignation of non-partisan Berlin Culture Senator Sarah Wedl-Wilson (affiliated with CDU) amid antisemitism funding scandal damages CDU's reputation during polling period

CDU dips to 54%2%

Resignation of non-partisan Berlin Culture Senator Sarah Wedl-Wilson (affiliated with CDU) amid antisemitism funding scandal damages CDU's reputation during polling period

Nationwide polls show AfD and CDU dominating, BSW remains marginal at ~3-4%

National and regional polls in early 2026 confirmed BSW's marginal status, with stronger support for CDU and AfD, further reducing market confidence in BSW's chances.

CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after coalition talks with SPD, signaling CDU dominance in Berlin politics and limiting SPD's prospects

SPD dips to 6%1%

CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after coalition talks with SPD, signaling CDU dominance in Berlin politics and limiting SPD's prospects

Berlin CDU suffers sharp drop in support to 19% in new poll;

CDU plunges to 46%17%

Kai Wegner's satisfaction rating falls to last place nationally with only 17% approval, signaling leadership crisis

BerlinTrend poll shows CDU leading with 22%, BSW polling at only 3%

BSW dips to 0%1%

The January 2026 BerlinTrend poll revealed BSW far below the threshold for significant representation, reinforcing market expectations that BSW would not win the election.

Polls show AfD surging in Berlin to 15%, ahead of the Greens but behind CDU and SPD

AfD rises to 11%3%

Rising Berlin support raised hopes for AfD gains in the upcoming state election, reflected in a.

AfD reaches biggest-ever lead over CDU in nationwide poll, signaling rising right-wing opposition strength and weakening CDU position nationally and in Berlin

CDU jumps to 60%10%

AfD reaches biggest-ever lead over CDU in nationwide poll, signaling rising right-wing opposition strength and weakening CDU position nationally and in Berlin

CDU confirms Governing Mayor Kai Wegner as lead candidate for 2026 Berlin election

BSW plunges to 1%49%

The CDU's early consolidation around incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner strengthened their position as frontrunners, diminishing BSW's perceived chances of winning the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus.

INSA poll shows a modest rise to 11 % for Linke, briefly halting the decline and helping the

Linke dips to 21%1%

INSA poll shows a modest rise to 11 % for Linke, briefly halting the decline and helping the

INSA poll again places Linke at 10.5 % (no gain), keeping pressure on the market and contributing to the slide to 24 %→ 22 %

Linke drops to 22%5%

INSA poll again places Linke at 10.5 % (no gain), keeping pressure on the market and contributing to the slide to 24 %→ 22 %

Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still only at 10 % while CDU/CSU leads, reinforcing the market‑sell‑off and pushing the

Linke dips to 27%3%

Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still only at 10 % while CDU/CSU leads, reinforcing the market‑sell‑off and pushing the

Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with Greens trailing closely behind at around 16.6%

Grüne rises to 13%4%

Polling data indicating a competitive but challenging environment for the Greens in Berlin caused a moderate

INSA poll shows Die Linke at 10.5 % in Berlin, tied with Greens and AfD and down from earlier 18 % levels, triggering a sharp drop from 50 %→ 30 %

Linke plunges to 30%20%

INSA poll shows Die Linke at 10.5 % in Berlin, tied with Greens and AfD and down from earlier 18 % levels, triggering a sharp drop from 50 %→ 30 %

INSA poll shows SPD at 14.5% nationally, trailing CDU/CSU and AfD, indicating continued weak momentum for SPD ahead of Berlin election

SPD dips to 8%3%

INSA poll shows SPD at 14.5% nationally, trailing CDU/CSU and AfD, indicating continued weak momentum for SPD ahead of Berlin election

BerlinTrend poll shows CDU remains strongest party but loses 3 percentage points, with CDU-SPD coalition losing majority and only 21% satisfied with Berlin Senate's work

CDU jumps to 60%10%

BerlinTrend poll shows CDU remains strongest party but loses 3 percentage points, with CDU-SPD coalition losing majority and only 21% satisfied with Berlin Senate's work

Berlin Constitutional Court invalidates 2021 Berlin state election results, ordering repeat election

AfD rises to 8%2%

The election irregularities and repeat election created uncertainty but also an opportunity for AfD to improve its position in Berlin, slightly boosting.

At the Linke party congress, former leader Gregor Gysi launches “Mission Silberlocke” to revive the party and announces his own candidacy in Berlin‑Treptow‑Köpenick, sparking a

Linke jumps to 21%8%

At the Linke party congress, former leader Gregor Gysi launches “Mission Silberlocke” to revive the party and announces his own candidacy in Berlin‑Treptow‑Köpenick, sparking a short‑term rally that lifts the

Tagesspiegel poll shows Linke dropping to a low of 8 % (the market’s lowest point), driving the

Linke jumps to 13%5%

Tagesspiegel poll shows Linke dropping to a low of 8 % (the market’s lowest point), driving the

Greens maintain coalition government in Rhineland-Palatinate state election

Grüne dips to 9%2%

The Greens' steady performance in Rhineland-Palatinate reinforced their regional presence but did not significantly improve market confidence for Berlin.

Greens narrowly win Baden-Württemberg state election, defeating CDU

Grüne jumps to 12%8%

The Greens' unexpected victory in Baden-Württemberg, a key industrial region, boosted market optimism about their electoral strength, causing a significant

A T‑online poll reports Linke at 18 % in Berlin, up from the previous week, helping the market recover to 13 %→ 14 %

Linke rises to 14%1%

A T‑online poll reports Linke at 18 % in Berlin, up from the previous week, helping the market recover to 13 %→ 14 %

Greens lose 33 seats in the 2025 German federal election, securing 11.6% of the vote

Grüne dips to 4%1%

The Greens' poor federal election result, attributed to the unpopularity of the Scholz cabinet and coalition collapse, led to a sharp drop in market confidence for their Berlin election chances.

Following the federal‑election recount controversy, Linke fails to convert its momentum into Berlin poll gains, and a new INSA poll shows it slipping back to 13 % – the

Linke plunges to 13%19%

Following the federal‑election recount controversy, Linke fails to convert its momentum into Berlin poll gains, and a new INSA poll shows it slipping back to 13 % – the

SPD suffers historic losses in the 2025 German federal election, dropping to 16.4%, its worst result since 1887, signaling weakened voter support nationally and in Berlin

SPD plunges to 12%38%

SPD suffers historic losses in the 2025 German federal election, dropping to 16.4%, its worst result since 1887, signaling weakened voter support nationally and in Berlin

Civey’s national poll (Feb 2025) puts Linke at 7 % nationwide, signalling a broader slump that later echoed in Berlin polls and coincides with the market’s fall from 29 %→ 28 % in

Linke dips to 28%1%

Civey’s national poll (Feb 2025) puts Linke at 7 % nationwide, signalling a broader slump that later echoed in Berlin polls and coincides with the market’s fall from 29 %→ 28 % in early January

After the 2025 German federal election, Linke wins six constituency seats and improves its national standing, prompting a market bounce from 22 %→ 32 % in mid‑February

Linke jumps to 32%10%

After the 2025 German federal election, Linke wins six constituency seats and improves its national standing, prompting a market bounce from 22 %→ 32 % in mid‑February

AfD leader publicly supports "remigration," advocating mass deportation of migrants including German citizens

AfD dips to 7%2%

This controversial stance sparked widespread protests and increased political isolation, negatively impacting market confidence.

Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with 27% support, a record high for the party

AfD rises to 9%3%

The GMS poll indicated AfD's growing national appeal, raising hopes for electoral gains and causing a modest.

AfD wins first-ever state election in Thuringia with 32.8% vote share, becoming strongest party in the state parliament

AfD plunges to 6%44%

This historic victory marked a high point for AfD, boosting early market optimism. However, the subsequent "firewall" policy by other parties to exclude AfD from government tempered expectations, contributing to a sharp.