**Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming market lead for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of all other challengers behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.** Surveys from Datafolha, PoderData, Nexus, and Quaest in mid-to-late August show Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37%, with the remainder of the field—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, and Romeu Zema—each below 5%. Flávio’s Liberal Party nomination in late July and the start of official campaigning on August 16 consolidated right-wing support after Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility, while Lula’s Workers’ Party re-election bid anchors the left. The narrow but stable gap between the two frontrunners, combined with the absence of a viable alternative on the right, has produced the current trader consensus reflected in the probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоФлавио Болсонару 85%
Луиз Инасиу Лула да Силва 13.2%
Человек M 1.7%
Ренан Сантос <1%
$5,657,336 Объем
$5,657,336 Объем
Флавио Болсонару
85%
Луиз Инасиу Лула да Силва
13%
Человек M
2%
Ренан Сантос
1%
Ромеу Зема
<1%
Камилу Сантана
<1%
Фернандо Хаддад
<1%
Эдуардо Болсонару
<1%
Альдо Ребело
<1%
Тарсисио ди Фрейтас
<1%
Мишель Болсонару
<1%
Жаир Болсонару
<1%
Ратиньо Жуниор
<1%
Роналду Кайаду
<1%
Жералду Алкмин
<1%
Эдуарду Лейте
<1%
Хелдер Барбалью
<1%
Тереза Кристина
<1%
Флавио Болсонару 85%
Луиз Инасиу Лула да Силва 13.2%
Человек M 1.7%
Ренан Сантос <1%
$5,657,336 Объем
$5,657,336 Объем
Флавио Болсонару
85%
Луиз Инасиу Лула да Силва
13%
Человек M
2%
Ренан Сантос
1%
Ромеу Зема
<1%
Камилу Сантана
<1%
Фернандо Хаддад
<1%
Эдуардо Болсонару
<1%
Альдо Ребело
<1%
Тарсисио ди Фрейтас
<1%
Мишель Болсонару
<1%
Жаир Болсонару
<1%
Ратиньо Жуниор
<1%
Роналду Кайаду
<1%
Жералду Алкмин
<1%
Эдуарду Лейте
<1%
Хелдер Барбалью
<1%
Тереза Кристина
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...**Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming market lead for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of all other challengers behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.** Surveys from Datafolha, PoderData, Nexus, and Quaest in mid-to-late August show Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37%, with the remainder of the field—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, and Romeu Zema—each below 5%. Flávio’s Liberal Party nomination in late July and the start of official campaigning on August 16 consolidated right-wing support after Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility, while Lula’s Workers’ Party re-election bid anchors the left. The narrow but stable gap between the two frontrunners, combined with the absence of a viable alternative on the right, has produced the current trader consensus reflected in the probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Займёт ли Роналду Кайаду третье место в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
Получит ли Флавио Болсонару наибольшее количество голосов на следующих президентских выборах в Бразилии от Федерального округа?
Получит ли Флавио Болсонару наибольшее количество голосов на следующих президентских выборах в Бразилии в штате Парана?
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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