Recent polling aggregates for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 38–40% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 33–36%, while fragmented alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register in the low-to-mid single digits. Flávio’s position as the principal opposition standard-bearer strengthened after his July 2026 Liberal Party nomination and campaign launch, which consolidated Bolsonarista voters behind the senator as the heir to his father’s political base. Limited coalition-building with centrist parties and the absence of stronger alternative right-wing candidacies have further narrowed the field, sustaining trader consensus that Flávio will finish second. Lula’s lead remains stable across demographic segments, keeping his probability of placing second low.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоФлавио Болсонару 88%
Луиз Инасиу Лула да Силва 8.6%
Аугусто Кури 1.3%
Ренан Сантос <1%
$6,131,137 Объем
$6,131,137 Объем
Флавио Болсонару
88%
Луиз Инасиу Лула да Силва
9%
Аугусто Кури
1%
Ренан Сантос
<1%
Ромеу Зема
<1%
Камилу Сантана
<1%
Фернандо Хаддад
<1%
Эдуардо Болсонару
<1%
Альдо Ребело
<1%
Тарсисио ди Фрейтас
<1%
Мишель Болсонару
<1%
Жаир Болсонару
<1%
Ратиньо Жуниор
<1%
Роналду Кайаду
<1%
Жералду Алкмин
<1%
Эдуарду Лейте
<1%
Хелдер Барбалью
<1%
Тереза Кристина
<1%
Флавио Болсонару 88%
Луиз Инасиу Лула да Силва 8.6%
Аугусто Кури 1.3%
Ренан Сантос <1%
$6,131,137 Объем
$6,131,137 Объем
Флавио Болсонару
88%
Луиз Инасиу Лула да Силва
9%
Аугусто Кури
1%
Ренан Сантос
<1%
Ромеу Зема
<1%
Камилу Сантана
<1%
Фернандо Хаддад
<1%
Эдуардо Болсонару
<1%
Альдо Ребело
<1%
Тарсисио ди Фрейтас
<1%
Мишель Болсонару
<1%
Жаир Болсонару
<1%
Ратиньо Жуниор
<1%
Роналду Кайаду
<1%
Жералду Алкмин
<1%
Эдуарду Лейте
<1%
Хелдер Барбалью
<1%
Тереза Кристина
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling aggregates for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 38–40% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 33–36%, while fragmented alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register in the low-to-mid single digits. Flávio’s position as the principal opposition standard-bearer strengthened after his July 2026 Liberal Party nomination and campaign launch, which consolidated Bolsonarista voters behind the senator as the heir to his father’s political base. Limited coalition-building with centrist parties and the absence of stronger alternative right-wing candidacies have further narrowed the field, sustaining trader consensus that Flávio will finish second. Lula’s lead remains stable across demographic segments, keeping his probability of placing second low.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Финиширует ли Аугусто Кури на третьем месте в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
Выиграет ли Лула большинство голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
Получит ли Флавио Болсонару наибольшее количество голосов на следующих президентских выборах в Бразилии от Федерального округа?
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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