The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоJerônimo Rodrigues 51%
ACM Neto 44%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$38,815 Объем
$38,815 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Jerônimo Rodrigues
51%
ACM Neto
44%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 51%
ACM Neto 44%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$38,815 Объем
$38,815 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$11,543 Объем
51%
ACM Neto
$13,190 Объем
44%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,825 Объем
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$3,606 Объем
<1%
João Roma
$2,236 Объем
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$2,327 Объем
<1%
Rui Costa
$2,089 Объем
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Объем
$38,815Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$38,815Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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