Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead in trader consensus for the Bahia gubernatorial race, reflecting his structural advantages as the sitting governor in a state long aligned with the Workers’ Party and stable approval ratings between 56% and 61%. Recent Genial/Quaest and RealTime Big Data surveys from July and August show a technical tie in first-round intentions, with ACM Neto (UNIÃO) close behind after narrowing an earlier deficit through coalition realignments and alignment with national right-wing blocs. The August 9 debate and ongoing negotiations among municipal leaders have kept momentum fluid without decisive shifts, while minor candidates remain negligible. The rematch dynamic from 2022 continues to frame voter calculations ahead of the October first round.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЖерониму Родригес 54%
ACM Нето 46%
Клебер Роза <1%
Жозе Карлос Алелуйя <1%
$117,778 Объем
$117,778 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Жерониму Родригес
54%
ACM Нето
46%
Клебер Роза
<1%
Жозе Карлос Алелуйя
<1%
Жуау Рома
<1%
Бруно Соарес Рейс
<1%
Руй Коста
<1%
Жерониму Родригес 54%
ACM Нето 46%
Клебер Роза <1%
Жозе Карлос Алелуйя <1%
$117,778 Объем
$117,778 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Жерониму Родригес
$37,582 Объем
54%
ACM Нето
$40,246 Объем
46%
Клебер Роза
$12,792 Объем
<1%
Жозе Карлос Алелуйя
$10,899 Объем
<1%
Жуау Рома
$5,186 Объем
<1%
Бруно Соарес Рейс
$5,325 Объем
<1%
Руй Коста
$5,747 Объем
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead in trader consensus for the Bahia gubernatorial race, reflecting his structural advantages as the sitting governor in a state long aligned with the Workers’ Party and stable approval ratings between 56% and 61%. Recent Genial/Quaest and RealTime Big Data surveys from July and August show a technical tie in first-round intentions, with ACM Neto (UNIÃO) close behind after narrowing an earlier deficit through coalition realignments and alignment with national right-wing blocs. The August 9 debate and ongoing negotiations among municipal leaders have kept momentum fluid without decisive shifts, while minor candidates remain negligible. The rematch dynamic from 2022 continues to frame voter calculations ahead of the October first round.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Объем
$117,778Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead in trader consensus for the Bahia gubernatorial race, reflecting his structural advantages as the sitting governor in a state long aligned with the Workers’ Party and stable approval ratings between 56% and 61%. Recent Genial/Quaest and RealTime Big Data surveys from July and August show a technical tie in first-round intentions, with ACM Neto (UNIÃO) close behind after narrowing an earlier deficit through coalition realignments and alignment with national right-wing blocs. The August 9 debate and ongoing negotiations among municipal leaders have kept momentum fluid without decisive shifts, while minor candidates remain negligible. The rematch dynamic from 2022 continues to frame voter calculations ahead of the October first round.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$117,778Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead in trader consensus for the Bahia gubernatorial race, reflecting his structural advantages as the sitting governor in a state long aligned with the Workers’ Party and stable approval ratings between 56% and 61%. Recent Genial/Quaest and RealTime Big Data surveys from July and August show a technical tie in first-round intentions, with ACM Neto (UNIÃO) close behind after narrowing an earlier deficit through coalition realignments and alignment with national right-wing blocs. The August 9 debate and ongoing negotiations among municipal leaders have kept momentum fluid without decisive shifts, while minor candidates remain negligible. The rematch dynamic from 2022 continues to frame voter calculations ahead of the October first round.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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