Recent polling from July shows Benedita da Silva (PT) maintaining a clear lead for one of Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, while the contest for second place remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Portinho (PL), Márcio Canella (União), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and several others, each polling in the low single digits amid 59-61% undecided or blank responses. With roughly seven weeks until the October vote and limited new surveys since late July, traders see no candidate pulling ahead decisively. High voter indecision, the absence of a unifying right-leaning alternative, and potential late shifts from endorsements or campaign events continue to keep implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered.