Recent polling aggregates and seat projections position the Parti Québécois as the clear frontrunner to win the most seats in the October 5 election, reflecting sustained support near 28-29% amid francophone voters and emphasis on sovereignty. The Coalition Avenir Québec has slipped to the mid-20s or lower in most surveys as momentum from earlier tariff-related gains faded, while the Parti libéral du Québec has edged up modestly. Projections from models such as 338Canada assign the PQ an overwhelming likelihood of a plurality, though a majority remains unlikely given tight races and vote distribution. The first French-language leaders’ debate and the PQ’s release of a fiscal framework targeting earlier budget balance have kept attention on the top contenders in the final weeks of the campaign.