Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads trader assessments for Quebec’s next premier because the Parti Québécois maintains a narrow edge in recent polling at around 29 percent ahead of the October 5 election, translating into an 80 percent chance of winning the most seats under first-past-the-post rules despite limited prospects for a majority. Christine Fréchette’s Coalition Avenir Québec has lost ground in late-summer surveys after an earlier rebound tied to handling of U.S. tariffs, while Charles Milliard’s Liberals have gained modestly. Campaign attention on sovereignty, healthcare costs, and the economy has kept the PQ’s platform in focus, with debates scheduled this week offering potential catalysts. Low odds on other candidates reflect their parties’ weaker polling and seat outlooks.