**Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the market for Quebec’s next premier because his Parti Québécois has held a consistent polling advantage ahead of the October 5, 2026 election, with recent surveys placing the party near 29 percent and ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec.** Seat projections from models such as 338Canada give the PQ an 80-plus percent chance of winning the most seats, reflecting strong francophone support and gains in multiple regions despite uncertainty over a majority. Christine Fréchette, who became CAQ leader and premier in April 2026, trails as the incumbent party contends with voter fatigue after years in power and faces questions over its “autonomiste” stance amid U.S. tariffs. Charles Milliard’s Liberals sit further back, while smaller parties including Québec solidaire and the Conservatives register minimal probabilities. Recent campaign developments, including debate over referendum timing and costs, have reinforced rather than altered the PQ’s frontrunner position in trader assessments.