Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite dozens of petitions filed in recent years, including multiple targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Institutional safeguards, including Senate procedural thresholds and the court’s own efforts to limit standing for complaints, have consistently blocked advancement. A April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices over the Banco Master case, yet no formal removal process has moved forward. Traders assign only a 3.3% chance of any removal before 2027 because these structural barriers and the lack of sustained bipartisan support in the current Senate outweigh periodic political pressure. Late-session legislative shifts after the 2026 elections or an unprecedented cross-party consensus could still alter the timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
3% вероятность
$83,706 Объем
$83,706 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$83,706 Объем
$83,706 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite dozens of petitions filed in recent years, including multiple targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Institutional safeguards, including Senate procedural thresholds and the court’s own efforts to limit standing for complaints, have consistently blocked advancement. A April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices over the Banco Master case, yet no formal removal process has moved forward. Traders assign only a 3.3% chance of any removal before 2027 because these structural barriers and the lack of sustained bipartisan support in the current Senate outweigh periodic political pressure. Late-session legislative shifts after the 2026 elections or an unprecedented cross-party consensus could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Объем
$83,706Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite dozens of petitions filed in recent years, including multiple targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Institutional safeguards, including Senate procedural thresholds and the court’s own efforts to limit standing for complaints, have consistently blocked advancement. A April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices over the Banco Master case, yet no formal removal process has moved forward. Traders assign only a 3.3% chance of any removal before 2027 because these structural barriers and the lack of sustained bipartisan support in the current Senate outweigh periodic political pressure. Late-session legislative shifts after the 2026 elections or an unprecedented cross-party consensus could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$83,706Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite dozens of petitions filed in recent years, including multiple targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Institutional safeguards, including Senate procedural thresholds and the court’s own efforts to limit standing for complaints, have consistently blocked advancement. A April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices over the Banco Master case, yet no formal removal process has moved forward. Traders assign only a 3.3% chance of any removal before 2027 because these structural barriers and the lack of sustained bipartisan support in the current Senate outweigh periodic political pressure. Late-session legislative shifts after the 2026 elections or an unprecedented cross-party consensus could still alter the timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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