Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment, reflecting entrenched procedural barriers that include a two-thirds majority requirement for conviction and initiation typically limited to the Prosecutor-General following a December 2025 STF ruling. Recent congressional inquiries, including an April 2026 report recommending proceedings against justices such as Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes over the Banco Master scandal, have advanced no further amid these thresholds and Senate dynamics favoring the executive's legislative allies. Traders assign 96.9% probability to "No" before 2027 because short timelines and institutional protections have consistently shelved prior petitions. Shifts remain possible only through abrupt Senate realignment or cross-party consensus on specific charges before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$82,649 Объем
$82,649 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$82,649 Объем
$82,649 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment, reflecting entrenched procedural barriers that include a two-thirds majority requirement for conviction and initiation typically limited to the Prosecutor-General following a December 2025 STF ruling. Recent congressional inquiries, including an April 2026 report recommending proceedings against justices such as Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes over the Banco Master scandal, have advanced no further amid these thresholds and Senate dynamics favoring the executive's legislative allies. Traders assign 96.9% probability to "No" before 2027 because short timelines and institutional protections have consistently shelved prior petitions. Shifts remain possible only through abrupt Senate realignment or cross-party consensus on specific charges before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Объем
$82,649Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment, reflecting entrenched procedural barriers that include a two-thirds majority requirement for conviction and initiation typically limited to the Prosecutor-General following a December 2025 STF ruling. Recent congressional inquiries, including an April 2026 report recommending proceedings against justices such as Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes over the Banco Master scandal, have advanced no further amid these thresholds and Senate dynamics favoring the executive's legislative allies. Traders assign 96.9% probability to "No" before 2027 because short timelines and institutional protections have consistently shelved prior petitions. Shifts remain possible only through abrupt Senate realignment or cross-party consensus on specific charges before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$82,649Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment, reflecting entrenched procedural barriers that include a two-thirds majority requirement for conviction and initiation typically limited to the Prosecutor-General following a December 2025 STF ruling. Recent congressional inquiries, including an April 2026 report recommending proceedings against justices such as Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes over the Banco Master scandal, have advanced no further amid these thresholds and Senate dynamics favoring the executive's legislative allies. Traders assign 96.9% probability to "No" before 2027 because short timelines and institutional protections have consistently shelved prior petitions. Shifts remain possible only through abrupt Senate realignment or cross-party consensus on specific charges before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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