Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-11 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, with 4-7 ships at 31.5% implied probability edging out 8-11 ships at 28.5%, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk from the U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports that took effect April 13-14. Recent transits dipped to a dozen vessels on April 13 amid deterrence, though 3-4 Iran-linked tankers defied orders on April 14, sustaining low single-digit to low-double-digit flows—mere 6-10% of pre-conflict norms exceeding 90 daily vessels carrying 20 million barrels per day of oil. Key swing factors include U.S. enforcement rigor, shipper compliance amid war risk premiums, and potential Iranian retaliation, with resolution looming in four days amid elevated Brent crude volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
4-7 32%
8-11 29%
<4 11%
12-15 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 апр. 2026 г.
<4
11%
4-7
32%
8-11
29%
12-15
9%
16-19
6%
20+
9%
4-7 32%
8-11 29%
<4 11%
12-15 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 апр. 2026 г.
<4
$1,025 Объем
11%
4-7
$570 Объем
32%
8-11
$354 Объем
29%
12-15
$416 Объем
9%
16-19
$454 Объем
6%
20+
$2,623 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-11 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, with 4-7 ships at 31.5% implied probability edging out 8-11 ships at 28.5%, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk from the U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports that took effect April 13-14. Recent transits dipped to a dozen vessels on April 13 amid deterrence, though 3-4 Iran-linked tankers defied orders on April 14, sustaining low single-digit to low-double-digit flows—mere 6-10% of pre-conflict norms exceeding 90 daily vessels carrying 20 million barrels per day of oil. Key swing factors include U.S. enforcement rigor, shipper compliance amid war risk premiums, and potential Iranian retaliation, with resolution looming in four days amid elevated Brent crude volatility.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Открытие рынка: Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Объем
$5,443Дата окончания
19 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-11 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, with 4-7 ships at 31.5% implied probability edging out 8-11 ships at 28.5%, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk from the U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports that took effect April 13-14. Recent transits dipped to a dozen vessels on April 13 amid deterrence, though 3-4 Iran-linked tankers defied orders on April 14, sustaining low single-digit to low-double-digit flows—mere 6-10% of pre-conflict norms exceeding 90 daily vessels carrying 20 million barrels per day of oil. Key swing factors include U.S. enforcement rigor, shipper compliance amid war risk premiums, and potential Iranian retaliation, with resolution looming in four days amid elevated Brent crude volatility.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Объем
$5,443Дата окончания
19 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-11 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, with 4-7 ships at 31.5% implied probability edging out 8-11 ships at 28.5%, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk from the U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports that took effect April 13-14. Recent transits dipped to a dozen vessels on April 13 amid deterrence, though 3-4 Iran-linked tankers defied orders on April 14, sustaining low single-digit to low-double-digit flows—mere 6-10% of pre-conflict norms exceeding 90 daily vessels carrying 20 million barrels per day of oil. Key swing factors include U.S. enforcement rigor, shipper compliance amid war risk premiums, and potential Iranian retaliation, with resolution looming in four days amid elevated Brent crude volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы