No Level 4 CDC Travel Health Notice (“Avoid All Travel”) has been issued as of early June 2026, supporting the 76.5% market-implied probability of “No” by year-end. Official CDC monitoring shows only Level 3 notices, such as the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo update for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, alongside multiple Level 2 alerts for polio, chikungunya, and malaria. Current epidemiological data indicate controlled transmission without the extreme, uncontainable health risks that historically triggered Level 4 during peak COVID-19 waves. No novel high-consequence pathogen or rapid escalation meeting CDC criteria for avoiding all nonessential travel has emerged in recent surveillance updates. Traders appear to weigh the absence of sustained outbreaks exceeding historical baselines against the low likelihood of sudden deterioration before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCDC выпустит предупреждение 4-го уровня до 31 декабря?
Да
$71,851 Объем
$71,851 Объем
Да
$71,851 Объем
$71,851 Объем
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...No Level 4 CDC Travel Health Notice (“Avoid All Travel”) has been issued as of early June 2026, supporting the 76.5% market-implied probability of “No” by year-end. Official CDC monitoring shows only Level 3 notices, such as the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo update for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, alongside multiple Level 2 alerts for polio, chikungunya, and malaria. Current epidemiological data indicate controlled transmission without the extreme, uncontainable health risks that historically triggered Level 4 during peak COVID-19 waves. No novel high-consequence pathogen or rapid escalation meeting CDC criteria for avoiding all nonessential travel has emerged in recent surveillance updates. Traders appear to weigh the absence of sustained outbreaks exceeding historical baselines against the low likelihood of sudden deterioration before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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