Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11 12:00 PM ET, anchored by the April 6-8 market resolving exactly in that range amid his recent daily average of 33 posts tracked through April 3-10 (199 total at 86% progress). This moderate positioning reflects Musk's variable X activity—spiking during viral AI announcements like Colossus 2 training updates or Tesla inventory pushes, but tempered by commitments to xAI, SpaceX, and DOGE. Lower ranges like 40-64 (24.5%) and 90-114 (21.5%) capture uncertainty from his unpredictable engagement bursts, with no major catalysts in the last 48 hours shifting sentiment ahead of the April 11 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено65-89 44%
40-64 25%
90-114 22%
115-139 5%
$253,514 Объем
$253,514 Объем
11 апр. 2026 г.
Менее 40
2%
40-64
25%
65-89
44%
90-114
22%
115-139
5%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 44%
40-64 25%
90-114 22%
115-139 5%
$253,514 Объем
$253,514 Объем
11 апр. 2026 г.
Менее 40
$31,746 Объем
2%
40-64
$15,096 Объем
25%
65-89
$15,401 Объем
44%
90-114
$11,428 Объем
22%
115-139
$11,361 Объем
5%
140-164
$26,661 Объем
1%
165-189
$19,785 Объем
1%
190-214
$36,125 Объем
<1%
215-239
$37,145 Объем
<1%
240+
$48,772 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11 12:00 PM ET, anchored by the April 6-8 market resolving exactly in that range amid his recent daily average of 33 posts tracked through April 3-10 (199 total at 86% progress). This moderate positioning reflects Musk's variable X activity—spiking during viral AI announcements like Colossus 2 training updates or Tesla inventory pushes, but tempered by commitments to xAI, SpaceX, and DOGE. Lower ranges like 40-64 (24.5%) and 90-114 (21.5%) capture uncertainty from his unpredictable engagement bursts, with no major catalysts in the last 48 hours shifting sentiment ahead of the April 11 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 6, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Объем
$253,514Дата окончания
11 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 6, 2026, 12:01 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11 12:00 PM ET, anchored by the April 6-8 market resolving exactly in that range amid his recent daily average of 33 posts tracked through April 3-10 (199 total at 86% progress). This moderate positioning reflects Musk's variable X activity—spiking during viral AI announcements like Colossus 2 training updates or Tesla inventory pushes, but tempered by commitments to xAI, SpaceX, and DOGE. Lower ranges like 40-64 (24.5%) and 90-114 (21.5%) capture uncertainty from his unpredictable engagement bursts, with no major catalysts in the last 48 hours shifting sentiment ahead of the April 11 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Объем
$253,514Дата окончания
11 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 6, 2026, 12:01 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11 12:00 PM ET, anchored by the April 6-8 market resolving exactly in that range amid his recent daily average of 33 posts tracked through April 3-10 (199 total at 86% progress). This moderate positioning reflects Musk's variable X activity—spiking during viral AI announcements like Colossus 2 training updates or Tesla inventory pushes, but tempered by commitments to xAI, SpaceX, and DOGE. Lower ranges like 40-64 (24.5%) and 90-114 (21.5%) capture uncertainty from his unpredictable engagement bursts, with no major catalysts in the last 48 hours shifting sentiment ahead of the April 11 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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