Recent leaks of unannounced Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users on May 5, along with brief iOS rollouts, have driven trader consensus toward a mid-May large language model release, pricing May 19 at 33.5% implied probability amid Google I/O's May 19-20 kickoff—prime for AI announcements. Yesterday's Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite launch highlights Google's aggressive iteration to close gaps with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 on benchmarks like reasoning and tool use. Yet, absent official confirmation, "No release by May 31" holds steady at 30.5%, underscoring rollout delays common in AI scaling; watch I/O keynotes for resolution catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGemini 3.2 released on...?
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
May 19 34%
No release by May 31 32%
May 13 6%
May 20 5%
НОВОЕ
$35,765 Объем
НОВОЕ
$35,765 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
On or prior to May 6
<1%
May 7
2%
May 8
<1%
May 9
1%
May 10
4%
May 11
3%
May 12
14%
May 13
6%
May 14
5%
May 15
2%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
34%
May 20
5%
May 21
3%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
3%
May 26
1%
May 27
8%
May 28
<1%
May 29
1%
May 30
1%
May 31
1%
No release by May 31
32%
May 19 34%
No release by May 31 32%
May 13 6%
May 20 5%
НОВОЕ
$35,765 Объем
НОВОЕ
$35,765 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
On or prior to May 6
$1,423 Объем
<1%
May 7
$784 Объем
2%
May 8
$499 Объем
<1%
May 9
$2,773 Объем
1%
May 10
$2,853 Объем
4%
May 11
$554 Объем
3%
May 12
$567 Объем
14%
May 13
$604 Объем
6%
May 14
$526 Объем
5%
May 15
$524 Объем
2%
May 16
$2,806 Объем
<1%
May 17
$2,818 Объем
<1%
May 18
$752 Объем
4%
May 19
$1,252 Объем
34%
May 20
$857 Объем
5%
May 21
$791 Объем
3%
May 22
$771 Объем
2%
May 23
$2,581 Объем
<1%
May 24
$2,626 Объем
1%
May 25
$596 Объем
3%
May 26
$601 Объем
1%
May 27
$586 Объем
8%
May 28
$586 Объем
<1%
May 29
$611 Объем
1%
May 30
$2,995 Объем
1%
May 31
$2,757 Объем
1%
No release by May 31
$673 Объем
32%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of unannounced Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users on May 5, along with brief iOS rollouts, have driven trader consensus toward a mid-May large language model release, pricing May 19 at 33.5% implied probability amid Google I/O's May 19-20 kickoff—prime for AI announcements. Yesterday's Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite launch highlights Google's aggressive iteration to close gaps with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 on benchmarks like reasoning and tool use. Yet, absent official confirmation, "No release by May 31" holds steady at 30.5%, underscoring rollout delays common in AI scaling; watch I/O keynotes for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Объем
$35,765Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of unannounced Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users on May 5, along with brief iOS rollouts, have driven trader consensus toward a mid-May large language model release, pricing May 19 at 33.5% implied probability amid Google I/O's May 19-20 kickoff—prime for AI announcements. Yesterday's Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite launch highlights Google's aggressive iteration to close gaps with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 on benchmarks like reasoning and tool use. Yet, absent official confirmation, "No release by May 31" holds steady at 30.5%, underscoring rollout delays common in AI scaling; watch I/O keynotes for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$35,765Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent leaks of unannounced Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users on May 5, along with brief iOS rollouts, have driven trader consensus toward a mid-May large language model release, pricing May 19 at 33.5% implied probability amid Google I/O's May 19-20 kickoff—prime for AI announcements. Yesterday's Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite launch highlights Google's aggressive iteration to close gaps with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 on benchmarks like reasoning and tool use. Yet, absent official confirmation, "No release by May 31" holds steady at 30.5%, underscoring rollout delays common in AI scaling; watch I/O keynotes for resolution catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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