Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for Austin on August 26 centers on a persistent upper-level ridge sustaining extreme heat, with forecast highs clustered near 104°F amid a heat advisory through the period. This positioning leaves the market-implied probabilities nearly even between the 102–103°F and 104–105°F bins, reflecting minor differences in afternoon mixing, wind speeds, and any late-day moisture that could trim or boost the peak by a degree or two. August climatology shows average highs around 101°F, but ongoing drought and clear skies favor readings above normal; traders weigh ensemble spread and any final model updates expected overnight against historical variance in daily maxima during similar ridge patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Остине 26 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Остине 26 августа?
102-103°F 46%
104-105°F 45%
106-107°F 8%
100-101°F 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
26 авг. 2026 г.
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
2%
100-101°F
6%
102-103°F
46%
104-105°F
45%
106-107°F
8%
108-109°F
4%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
102-103°F 46%
104-105°F 45%
106-107°F 8%
100-101°F 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
26 авг. 2026 г.
95°F or below
$310 Объем
<1%
96-97°F
$260 Объем
1%
98-99°F
$295 Объем
2%
100-101°F
$263 Объем
6%
102-103°F
$189 Объем
46%
104-105°F
$258 Объем
45%
106-107°F
$169 Объем
8%
108-109°F
$27 Объем
4%
110-111°F
$95 Объем
<1%
112-113°F
$280 Объем
<1%
114°F or higher
$365 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for Austin on August 26 centers on a persistent upper-level ridge sustaining extreme heat, with forecast highs clustered near 104°F amid a heat advisory through the period. This positioning leaves the market-implied probabilities nearly even between the 102–103°F and 104–105°F bins, reflecting minor differences in afternoon mixing, wind speeds, and any late-day moisture that could trim or boost the peak by a degree or two. August climatology shows average highs around 101°F, but ongoing drought and clear skies favor readings above normal; traders weigh ensemble spread and any final model updates expected overnight against historical variance in daily maxima during similar ridge patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Объем
$2,511Дата окончания
26 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for Austin on August 26 centers on a persistent upper-level ridge sustaining extreme heat, with forecast highs clustered near 104°F amid a heat advisory through the period. This positioning leaves the market-implied probabilities nearly even between the 102–103°F and 104–105°F bins, reflecting minor differences in afternoon mixing, wind speeds, and any late-day moisture that could trim or boost the peak by a degree or two. August climatology shows average highs around 101°F, but ongoing drought and clear skies favor readings above normal; traders weigh ensemble spread and any final model updates expected overnight against historical variance in daily maxima during similar ridge patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$2,511Дата окончания
26 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for Austin on August 26 centers on a persistent upper-level ridge sustaining extreme heat, with forecast highs clustered near 104°F amid a heat advisory through the period. This positioning leaves the market-implied probabilities nearly even between the 102–103°F and 104–105°F bins, reflecting minor differences in afternoon mixing, wind speeds, and any late-day moisture that could trim or boost the peak by a degree or two. August climatology shows average highs around 101°F, but ongoing drought and clear skies favor readings above normal; traders weigh ensemble spread and any final model updates expected overnight against historical variance in daily maxima during similar ridge patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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