Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—anchored by real-time China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing 29.6°C as of late afternoon on May 5 under clear skies (CAVOK conditions) and light southwest winds of 6 m/s, enabling efficient daytime boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 17°C. Converging CMA, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles precisely forecast this peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge driving May's typical spring warming, where historical averages of 27°C often reach 30°C. Realistic challenges include abrupt afternoon cloud cover capping at 29°C or prolonged sunshine nudging to 31°C, though final hourly data from CMA and Weather Underground stations, expected soon as sunset nears, will confirm amid minimal uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on May 5?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 5?
30°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$237,613 Объем
$237,613 Объем
5 мая 2026 г.
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$237,613 Объем
$237,613 Объем
5 мая 2026 г.
28°C or below
$25,342 Объем
No
29°C
$66,794 Объем
No
30°C
$18,990 Объем
Yes
31°C
$11,991 Объем
No
32°C
$18,798 Объем
No
33°C
$18,414 Объем
No
34°C
$16,486 Объем
No
35°C
$16,524 Объем
No
36°C
$18,134 Объем
No
37°C
$12,552 Объем
No
38°C or higher
$13,587 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—anchored by real-time China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing 29.6°C as of late afternoon on May 5 under clear skies (CAVOK conditions) and light southwest winds of 6 m/s, enabling efficient daytime boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 17°C. Converging CMA, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles precisely forecast this peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge driving May's typical spring warming, where historical averages of 27°C often reach 30°C. Realistic challenges include abrupt afternoon cloud cover capping at 29°C or prolonged sunshine nudging to 31°C, though final hourly data from CMA and Weather Underground stations, expected soon as sunset nears, will confirm amid minimal uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Объем
$237,613Дата окончания
5 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—anchored by real-time China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing 29.6°C as of late afternoon on May 5 under clear skies (CAVOK conditions) and light southwest winds of 6 m/s, enabling efficient daytime boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 17°C. Converging CMA, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles precisely forecast this peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge driving May's typical spring warming, where historical averages of 27°C often reach 30°C. Realistic challenges include abrupt afternoon cloud cover capping at 29°C or prolonged sunshine nudging to 31°C, though final hourly data from CMA and Weather Underground stations, expected soon as sunset nears, will confirm amid minimal uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$237,613Дата окончания
5 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—anchored by real-time China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing 29.6°C as of late afternoon on May 5 under clear skies (CAVOK conditions) and light southwest winds of 6 m/s, enabling efficient daytime boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 17°C. Converging CMA, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles precisely forecast this peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge driving May's typical spring warming, where historical averages of 27°C often reach 30°C. Realistic challenges include abrupt afternoon cloud cover capping at 29°C or prolonged sunshine nudging to 31°C, though final hourly data from CMA and Weather Underground stations, expected soon as sunset nears, will confirm amid minimal uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы