Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 22°C as Busan's highest temperature on April 20, 2026, backed by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations showing an early-day peak of 22°C amid hazy sunshine, followed by cooling to 17–18°C under mostly cloudy skies and southwest winds. This positioning reflects a sharp weather shift from mid-April's unseasonal heatwave (up to 27°C) to a cold wave advisory, with yellow dust influx suppressing further warming by reducing solar insolation and increasing cloud cover. Model consensus from KMA short-term forecasts aligns on no additional intensification, as incoming northerly flows cap highs. Realistic challenges would require improbable clear skies and downslope winds for a late-afternoon spike above 23°C, unlikely given current trajectories and evening descent. KMA updates expected overnight will finalize observations.