Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Cape Town on April 29?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 29?
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$55,071 Объем
$55,071 Объем
29 апр. 2026 г.
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$55,071 Объем
$55,071 Объем
29 апр. 2026 г.
14°C or below
$762 Объем
No
15°C
$667 Объем
No
16°C
$1,104 Объем
No
17°C
$2,130 Объем
No
18°C
$3,792 Объем
No
19°C
$7,581 Объем
No
20°C
$8,848 Объем
Yes
21°C
$7,116 Объем
No
22°C
$13,101 Объем
No
23°C
$4,596 Объем
No
24°C or higher
$5,375 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Объем
$55,071Дата окончания
29 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$55,071Дата окончания
29 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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