National Weather Service point forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Miami International Airport project a July 25 high near 91–92 °F under typical mid-summer subtropical ridging, anchoring the tight 45.5 % and 40 % implied probabilities on the 92–93 °F and 90–91 °F bins. Abundant low-level moisture and a modest sea-breeze circulation favor scattered afternoon convection that caps extreme heating while also limiting how far temperatures can fall below guidance. With only modest spread among short-range models and no strong signals for drier mid-level air or delayed thunderstorm initiation, traders see limited room for 94 °F-plus outcomes (9 %) or sub-90 °F results (under 9 % combined). The next 12Z NWS update and morning sounding data will be the key near-term catalysts.