Trader sentiment for Seoul’s July 26 minimum temperature reflects ensemble forecast consensus pointing to overnight lows near 23–25 °C amid peak East Asian monsoon conditions. Persistent cloud cover and high humidity limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while scattered showers and light southerly winds promote mixing that keeps temperatures from dropping sharply. Urban heat-island effects in Seoul further moderate minima relative to rural baselines. Leading market probabilities cluster tightly because model spread remains modest two days out, with differences hinging on exact precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Historical July climatology shows average lows of 22–24 °C, providing context for the current distribution, and updated Korea Meteorological Administration guidance expected within 24 hours could narrow the range before resolution.