**Recent forecasts position 30–31°C as the most likely daily maximum for Shanghai on September 1, 2026, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities.** Short-range models from sources including WeatherBug, LUFT TIME, and Worldmeteo indicate a high near 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with a 50–70% chance of showers or thunderstorms. These conditions reflect lingering late-summer subtropical warmth moderated by increasing cloud cover and moisture ahead of an approaching frontal system. Climatological baselines support this range: Shanghai’s early-September average daily high is approximately 28–29°C, with recent years showing variability of ±2–3°C depending on rainfall and wind patterns. Current observations on August 30 show daytime peaks of 31–32°C, and model consensus points to only modest cooling as easterly flow strengthens and precipitation chances rise on the 1st. Stronger cooling or intensification of storms could pull the maximum toward 29°C, while clearer breaks might allow a brief push to 32°C; extremes below 28°C or above 33°C remain low-probability outliers given the seasonal context and short lead time. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or global ensembles (ECMWF/GFS) over the next 24–48 hours will be the key drivers for any shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Шанхае 1 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Шанхае 1 сентября?
30°C 44%
31°C 32%
29°C 17%
32°C 8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 сент. 2026 г.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
17%
30°C
44%
31°C
32%
32°C
8%
33°C
3%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 44%
31°C 32%
29°C 17%
32°C 8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 сент. 2026 г.
25°C or below
$276 Объем
<1%
26°C
$166 Объем
<1%
27°C
$342 Объем
1%
28°C
$98 Объем
5%
29°C
$238 Объем
17%
30°C
$226 Объем
44%
31°C
$172 Объем
32%
32°C
$112 Объем
8%
33°C
$20 Объем
3%
34°C
$0 Объем
<1%
35°C or higher
$214 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts position 30–31°C as the most likely daily maximum for Shanghai on September 1, 2026, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities.** Short-range models from sources including WeatherBug, LUFT TIME, and Worldmeteo indicate a high near 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with a 50–70% chance of showers or thunderstorms. These conditions reflect lingering late-summer subtropical warmth moderated by increasing cloud cover and moisture ahead of an approaching frontal system.
Climatological baselines support this range: Shanghai’s early-September average daily high is approximately 28–29°C, with recent years showing variability of ±2–3°C depending on rainfall and wind patterns. Current observations on August 30 show daytime peaks of 31–32°C, and model consensus points to only modest cooling as easterly flow strengthens and precipitation chances rise on the 1st. Stronger cooling or intensification of storms could pull the maximum toward 29°C, while clearer breaks might allow a brief push to 32°C; extremes below 28°C or above 33°C remain low-probability outliers given the seasonal context and short lead time. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or global ensembles (ECMWF/GFS) over the next 24–48 hours will be the key drivers for any shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Объем
$1,864Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts position 30–31°C as the most likely daily maximum for Shanghai on September 1, 2026, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities.** Short-range models from sources including WeatherBug, LUFT TIME, and Worldmeteo indicate a high near 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with a 50–70% chance of showers or thunderstorms. These conditions reflect lingering late-summer subtropical warmth moderated by increasing cloud cover and moisture ahead of an approaching frontal system.
Climatological baselines support this range: Shanghai’s early-September average daily high is approximately 28–29°C, with recent years showing variability of ±2–3°C depending on rainfall and wind patterns. Current observations on August 30 show daytime peaks of 31–32°C, and model consensus points to only modest cooling as easterly flow strengthens and precipitation chances rise on the 1st. Stronger cooling or intensification of storms could pull the maximum toward 29°C, while clearer breaks might allow a brief push to 32°C; extremes below 28°C or above 33°C remain low-probability outliers given the seasonal context and short lead time. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or global ensembles (ECMWF/GFS) over the next 24–48 hours will be the key drivers for any shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,864Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts position 30–31°C as the most likely daily maximum for Shanghai on September 1, 2026, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities.** Short-range models from sources including WeatherBug, LUFT TIME, and Worldmeteo indicate a high near 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with a 50–70% chance of showers or thunderstorms. These conditions reflect lingering late-summer subtropical warmth moderated by increasing cloud cover and moisture ahead of an approaching frontal system. Climatological baselines support this range: Shanghai’s early-September average daily high is approximately 28–29°C, with recent years showing variability of ±2–3°C depending on rainfall and wind patterns. Current observations on August 30 show daytime peaks of 31–32°C, and model consensus points to only modest cooling as easterly flow strengthens and precipitation chances rise on the 1st. Stronger cooling or intensification of storms could pull the maximum toward 29°C, while clearer breaks might allow a brief push to 32°C; extremes below 28°C or above 33°C remain low-probability outliers given the seasonal context and short lead time. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or global ensembles (ECMWF/GFS) over the next 24–48 hours will be the key drivers for any shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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