Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance indicate unsettled conditions for London on August 31 driven by a passing Atlantic low, with scattered showers and variable cloud cover likely limiting insolation and keeping maxima near or slightly above the late-August climatological average of 20–21 °C. Trader consensus centers on 22 °C because most guidance shows afternoon temperatures peaking in the low 20s if breaks of sun occur, while lower outcomes gain support from heavier or more persistent rain suppressing the diurnal rise. Key variables include shower timing relative to peak heating, boundary-layer moisture, and any model shifts in steering flow; updated short-range runs and observational data from the Met Office will narrow the range before resolution.