Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's minimum temperature on July 26 will likely settle near 24–25°C, reflecting typical late-July conditions with high humidity suppressing radiative cooling and the urban heat island effect retaining warmth overnight. Cloudy skies and light winds expected through the weekend further limit temperature drops, while nearby model runs show minor variations around 23–26°C tied to precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. These factors create tight clustering in market-implied odds near the historical July nighttime baseline of 23–25°C, with traders weighing short-term forecast updates against the narrow range of plausible outcomes before resolution.