Recent forecast models indicate persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers across the Sichuan basin will limit solar heating on August 18, keeping the daily maximum near 23–25°C rather than the seasonal 29°C average. High humidity and weak steering winds favor localized convection that caps afternoon peaks, with ensemble guidance showing tight clustering around these values but divergence on exact timing and coverage of rain. Traders assign roughly equal weight to 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C because small shifts in storm initiation or clearing could easily move the observed high by 1–2°C. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and satellite observations of upstream moisture will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.