Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models highlight a subtropical high-pressure ridge over the Sichuan basin as the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring 37–39 °C, with 37 °C holding the highest probability at 22.5 %. High humidity, typical of July’s East Asian monsoon regime, limits nocturnal cooling while daytime insolation and light winds promote rapid warming, yet scattered afternoon convection and variable cloud cover create the tight spread across 36–39 °C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh recent model runs showing slight cooling from increased moisture against climatological peaks near 35 °C, with new short-range guidance expected within 24 hours likely to sharpen resolution.