Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional forecasts points to a high near 26°C on June 25 in Chengdu, aligning with the market's leading implied probability, as cloud cover and scattered showers associated with the ongoing southern China monsoon pattern are expected to limit daytime heating. Seasonal baselines show late-June averages of 28–30°C, but early-month heat across China has given way to increased humidity and precipitation that can suppress peaks by 2–4°C through reduced solar radiation and evaporative cooling. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with 25–27°C outcomes capturing most probability mass due to typical variability in Sichuan Basin conditions, while extremes below 24°C or above 28°C require stronger frontal systems or clear skies that current guidance does not strongly favor. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine these temperature thresholds for market resolution.