Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs place the most probable high temperature for Denver on August 1 in the low-to-mid 90s, aligning with the market’s 92–93 °F bin at 48 % implied probability. Early-August climatology shows a normal daily maximum of 90 °F at Denver International Airport; the modest upward shift reflects a persistent upper-level ridge and downslope warming from the Front Range. Soil moisture remains near seasonal averages after typical July rainfall, limiting evaporative cooling, while light winds and clear skies favor efficient daytime heating. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with only limited probability mass assigned to 94–95 °F or cooler 90–91 °F outcomes, consistent with the absence of strong frontal passages or significant cloud cover in the latest forecast discussions. Updated model runs and the official NWS forecast issued overnight will provide the final inputs before market resolution.