Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 32°C as Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 21, driven by real-time observations from the official Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station, which peaked at 32°C amid clear skies and high solar insolation typical of subtropical spring conditions. China Meteorological Administration data confirms mid-morning readings hit 31°C, with subsequent hours stabilizing below this threshold as sea breezes moderated daytime heating, aligning with forecast model consensus from sources like ECMWF showing highs in the 30–32°C range. While inherent measurement variability exists, a realistic challenge would require a late-afternoon revision uncovering an overlooked spike above 32°C before daily reporting closes, though sunset passage reduces this likelihood significantly. Final CMA summary expected within 24 hours.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 21?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 21?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$53,686 Объем
$53,686 Объем
21 апр. 2026 г.
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$53,686 Объем
$53,686 Объем
21 апр. 2026 г.
26°C or below
$2,988 Объем
No
27°C
$3,043 Объем
No
28°C
$6,585 Объем
No
29°C
$6,898 Объем
No
30°C
$5,998 Объем
No
31°C
$3,799 Объем
No
32°C
$9,571 Объем
Yes
33°C
$6,190 Объем
No
34°C
$5,215 Объем
No
35°C
$1,416 Объем
No
36°C or higher
$1,983 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 32°C as Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 21, driven by real-time observations from the official Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station, which peaked at 32°C amid clear skies and high solar insolation typical of subtropical spring conditions. China Meteorological Administration data confirms mid-morning readings hit 31°C, with subsequent hours stabilizing below this threshold as sea breezes moderated daytime heating, aligning with forecast model consensus from sources like ECMWF showing highs in the 30–32°C range. While inherent measurement variability exists, a realistic challenge would require a late-afternoon revision uncovering an overlooked spike above 32°C before daily reporting closes, though sunset passage reduces this likelihood significantly. Final CMA summary expected within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 19, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Объем
$53,686Дата окончания
21 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 19, 2026, 12:14 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 32°C as Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 21, driven by real-time observations from the official Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station, which peaked at 32°C amid clear skies and high solar insolation typical of subtropical spring conditions. China Meteorological Administration data confirms mid-morning readings hit 31°C, with subsequent hours stabilizing below this threshold as sea breezes moderated daytime heating, aligning with forecast model consensus from sources like ECMWF showing highs in the 30–32°C range. While inherent measurement variability exists, a realistic challenge would require a late-afternoon revision uncovering an overlooked spike above 32°C before daily reporting closes, though sunset passage reduces this likelihood significantly. Final CMA summary expected within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$53,686Дата окончания
21 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 19, 2026, 12:14 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 32°C as Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 21, driven by real-time observations from the official Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station, which peaked at 32°C amid clear skies and high solar insolation typical of subtropical spring conditions. China Meteorological Administration data confirms mid-morning readings hit 31°C, with subsequent hours stabilizing below this threshold as sea breezes moderated daytime heating, aligning with forecast model consensus from sources like ECMWF showing highs in the 30–32°C range. While inherent measurement variability exists, a realistic challenge would require a late-afternoon revision uncovering an overlooked spike above 32°C before daily reporting closes, though sunset passage reduces this likelihood significantly. Final CMA summary expected within 24 hours.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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