A strengthening heat dome and upper-level ridge over Texas are driving the market's 54.5% implied probability on a 96-97°F high for Houston on July 20. National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance place the expected maximum in the mid- to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies, consistent with July climatology at Bush Intercontinental where the normal high is 95°F. Limited moisture and light winds should allow full daytime heating without significant cloud cover or seabreeze moderation, while overnight lows near 76-78°F maintain elevated heat indices. Short-term model consensus shows little day-to-day variability through the period, keeping the 94-99°F range dominant in trader pricing ahead of the final NWS forecast update.