Mexico City's high-elevation location at roughly 2,240 meters produces mild July maxima that historically average 22–24°C, aligning closely with the market's tight clustering of implied probabilities around 22–24°C. The onset of the rainy season drives afternoon convective clouds and showers that frequently limit peak heating, while variable steering patterns and model spread in short-range forecasts create genuine uncertainty over exact daily highs. Recent conditions show typical early-July moisture without anomalous warming, reinforcing trader consensus on near-normal outcomes rather than extremes. Updated model runs from official meteorological agencies over the next 24 hours will provide the key data refinements ahead of resolution.