Ongoing summer heat across the Yangtze River Delta, reinforced by developing El Niño conditions and reduced monsoon rainfall, keeps nighttime radiative cooling limited and supports elevated minimum temperatures in Shanghai. Recent July patterns with daytime peaks near 36°C and limited cloud cover have produced overnight lows of 28–29°C, aligning with the market’s top-implied outcomes of 32°C or higher and 28°C. Short-term model consensus from regional agencies points to continued warm advection through July 30, though any late-month frontal passage or increased typhoon activity could introduce cooler air and lower the minimum. Traders weigh these dynamics against historical July low averages near 26–27°C when assessing resolution thresholds.