Official meteorological observations for Mexico City on June 17 confirmed a daily maximum of 23°C at the primary reporting stations, driving the near-certain market-implied probability for that outcome. At the city's 2,240-meter elevation, typical June highs average 24–25°C as the rainy season begins, but persistent afternoon cloud cover, scattered showers, and limited solar insolation kept readings at or below the seasonal norm. Forecasters from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service and international models aligned on this range, with surface data through the afternoon sealing the result and eliminating upside scenarios. A post-analysis revision to station readings or use of an alternate site could theoretically shift resolution, though such changes are rare once initial reports are validated.