Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS model runs and agencies like the Russian Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow’s September 18 high will likely reach 17–18°C amid a shift to westerly flow and increased cloud cover. Light rain or showers expected during the day will limit solar heating and keep temperatures below the prior day’s 21°C reading, consistent with mid-September climatology near 15°C. Model consensus shows minimal spread, with no strong signals for either significant warming or cooling that would push the maximum outside the narrow 16–19°C band. Traders appear to weight the 18°C outcome most heavily because afternoon clearing could allow a brief spike to that level before evening cooling sets in. Updated model runs and surface observations through the morning of the 18th represent the next key data points likely to refine these market-implied probabilities.