Official National Weather Service observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) recorded a high temperature of 81°F on May 4, 2026—well above the 74°F threshold—driving the 100% market-implied probability for "74°F or higher," with traders pricing out the 72-73°F outcome amid confirmed data. This marked a record-breaker, surpassing the prior May 4 mark of 77°F from 1992, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm air advection atypical for early May's climatological average near 63°F. Preliminary hourly data supports sustained peaks in the upper 70s to low 80s°F; final CLI report quality control could theoretically revise downward if anomalies detected, though such changes rarely alter highs by more than 1-2°F absent equipment failure. Traders await NWS certification for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Seattle on May 4?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 4?
74°F or higher 100.0%
55°F or below <1%
56-57°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$20,389 Объем
$20,389 Объем
4 мая 2026 г.
55°F or below
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74°F or higher
Yes
74°F or higher 100.0%
55°F or below <1%
56-57°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$20,389 Объем
$20,389 Объем
4 мая 2026 г.
55°F or below
$1,124 Объем
No
56-57°F
$280 Объем
No
58-59°F
$391 Объем
No
60-61°F
$378 Объем
No
62-63°F
$486 Объем
No
64-65°F
$834 Объем
No
66-67°F
$1,275 Объем
No
68-69°F
$1,214 Объем
No
70-71°F
$2,360 Объем
No
72-73°F
$6,142 Объем
No
74°F or higher
$5,905 Объем
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) recorded a high temperature of 81°F on May 4, 2026—well above the 74°F threshold—driving the 100% market-implied probability for "74°F or higher," with traders pricing out the 72-73°F outcome amid confirmed data. This marked a record-breaker, surpassing the prior May 4 mark of 77°F from 1992, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm air advection atypical for early May's climatological average near 63°F. Preliminary hourly data supports sustained peaks in the upper 70s to low 80s°F; final CLI report quality control could theoretically revise downward if anomalies detected, though such changes rarely alter highs by more than 1-2°F absent equipment failure. Traders await NWS certification for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Объем
$20,389Дата окончания
4 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) recorded a high temperature of 81°F on May 4, 2026—well above the 74°F threshold—driving the 100% market-implied probability for "74°F or higher," with traders pricing out the 72-73°F outcome amid confirmed data. This marked a record-breaker, surpassing the prior May 4 mark of 77°F from 1992, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm air advection atypical for early May's climatological average near 63°F. Preliminary hourly data supports sustained peaks in the upper 70s to low 80s°F; final CLI report quality control could theoretically revise downward if anomalies detected, though such changes rarely alter highs by more than 1-2°F absent equipment failure. Traders await NWS certification for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$20,389Дата окончания
4 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Official National Weather Service observations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) recorded a high temperature of 81°F on May 4, 2026—well above the 74°F threshold—driving the 100% market-implied probability for "74°F or higher," with traders pricing out the 72-73°F outcome amid confirmed data. This marked a record-breaker, surpassing the prior May 4 mark of 77°F from 1992, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm air advection atypical for early May's climatological average near 63°F. Preliminary hourly data supports sustained peaks in the upper 70s to low 80s°F; final CLI report quality control could theoretically revise downward if anomalies detected, though such changes rarely alter highs by more than 1-2°F absent equipment failure. Traders await NWS certification for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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