Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a moderating high-pressure pattern over the Kanto region on July 4, supporting maximum temperatures near the 26–27 °C range that currently dominate market-implied odds. This aligns with Tokyo’s early-July climatology (normal daily maximum 28.7 °C) while reflecting a brief respite from the late-June heatwave that produced multiple days above 35 °C. Above-normal seasonal guidance from the Pacific High extension keeps 28 °C and higher outcomes viable if subsidence strengthens, yet current steering flow and marine influence temper extreme upside. Updated JMA and global model outputs expected over the next 48 hours will refine land-sea breeze effects and boundary-layer moisture critical to final resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Токио 4 июля?
Самая высокая температура в Токио 4 июля?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$117,891 Объем
$117,891 Объем
4 июл. 2026 г.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$117,891 Объем
$117,891 Объем
4 июл. 2026 г.
21°C or below
$3,366 Объем
No
22°C
$3,496 Объем
No
23°C
$7,972 Объем
No
24°C
$10,303 Объем
No
25°C
$8,942 Объем
No
26°C
$19,054 Объем
No
27°C
$22,796 Объем
No
28°C
$14,163 Объем
Yes
29°C
$12,765 Объем
No
30°C
$10,543 Объем
No
31°C or higher
$4,492 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a moderating high-pressure pattern over the Kanto region on July 4, supporting maximum temperatures near the 26–27 °C range that currently dominate market-implied odds. This aligns with Tokyo’s early-July climatology (normal daily maximum 28.7 °C) while reflecting a brief respite from the late-June heatwave that produced multiple days above 35 °C. Above-normal seasonal guidance from the Pacific High extension keeps 28 °C and higher outcomes viable if subsidence strengthens, yet current steering flow and marine influence temper extreme upside. Updated JMA and global model outputs expected over the next 48 hours will refine land-sea breeze effects and boundary-layer moisture critical to final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Объем
$117,891Дата окончания
4 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a moderating high-pressure pattern over the Kanto region on July 4, supporting maximum temperatures near the 26–27 °C range that currently dominate market-implied odds. This aligns with Tokyo’s early-July climatology (normal daily maximum 28.7 °C) while reflecting a brief respite from the late-June heatwave that produced multiple days above 35 °C. Above-normal seasonal guidance from the Pacific High extension keeps 28 °C and higher outcomes viable if subsidence strengthens, yet current steering flow and marine influence temper extreme upside. Updated JMA and global model outputs expected over the next 48 hours will refine land-sea breeze effects and boundary-layer moisture critical to final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$117,891Дата окончания
4 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a moderating high-pressure pattern over the Kanto region on July 4, supporting maximum temperatures near the 26–27 °C range that currently dominate market-implied odds. This aligns with Tokyo’s early-July climatology (normal daily maximum 28.7 °C) while reflecting a brief respite from the late-June heatwave that produced multiple days above 35 °C. Above-normal seasonal guidance from the Pacific High extension keeps 28 °C and higher outcomes viable if subsidence strengthens, yet current steering flow and marine influence temper extreme upside. Updated JMA and global model outputs expected over the next 48 hours will refine land-sea breeze effects and boundary-layer moisture critical to final resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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