Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 11?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 11?
24°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$157,797 Объем
$157,797 Объем
11 мая 2026 г.
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$157,797 Объем
$157,797 Объем
11 мая 2026 г.
15°C or below
$761 Объем
No
16°C
$1,742 Объем
No
17°C
$578 Объем
No
18°C
$427 Объем
No
19°C
$2,556 Объем
No
20°C
$2,183 Объем
No
21°C
$4,284 Объем
No
22°C
$12,127 Объем
No
23°C
$84,569 Объем
No
24°C
$20,324 Объем
Yes
25°C or higher
$28,245 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 9, 2026, 3:37 AM ET
Объем
$157,797Дата окончания
11 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 9, 2026, 3:37 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$157,797Дата окончания
11 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 9, 2026, 3:37 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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