Current ensemble forecasts from European and U.S. models place Warsaw’s August 20 maximum near 23–25 °C, with modest spread arising from uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise track of a weak frontal boundary across central Europe. Recent days have featured cooler, showery conditions that have suppressed temperatures 2–4 °C below seasonal norms; gradual clearing and light southwesterly flow are expected to allow modest recovery. Historical climatology shows late-August daily maxima averaging ~22–23 °C, so the market’s tight clustering around 23–25 °C (and 34 % on 25 °C+) reflects model consensus tempered by the narrow 1–2 °C window that separates these bins and the remaining 48-hour forecast horizon.