The by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped into a contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Recent May local elections in Camden showed the Greens reaching 28.8% against Labour’s 38.8%, reflecting gains that have carried into the parliamentary race. Polanski’s selection, combined with endorsement from independent candidate Andrew Feinstein who polled 18.9% in 2024, has consolidated left-leaning support and sustained Green momentum through intensive doorstep campaigning. Independent projections place the Greens near 33%, while Labour’s selection of the council leader and national party stabilization efforts have kept the outcome competitive. These factors explain trader consensus clustering Green vote share probabilities between 25% and 35%, with limited separation until further polling or campaign events clarify turnout and tactical voting patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПромежуточные выборы в Холборне и Сент-Панкрасе: доля зеленого голосования?
Промежуточные выборы в Холборне и Сент-Панкрасе: доля зеленого голосования?
25-30% 34%
30-35% 24%
20-25% 22%
<20% 16%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 окт. 2026 г.
<20%
16%
20-25%
22%
25-30%
34%
30-35%
24%
35-40%
10%
40%+
5%
25-30% 34%
30-35% 24%
20-25% 22%
<20% 16%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 окт. 2026 г.
<20%
$349 Объем
16%
20-25%
$114 Объем
22%
25-30%
$273 Объем
34%
30-35%
$132 Объем
24%
35-40%
$113 Объем
10%
40%+
$120 Объем
5%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped into a contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Recent May local elections in Camden showed the Greens reaching 28.8% against Labour’s 38.8%, reflecting gains that have carried into the parliamentary race. Polanski’s selection, combined with endorsement from independent candidate Andrew Feinstein who polled 18.9% in 2024, has consolidated left-leaning support and sustained Green momentum through intensive doorstep campaigning. Independent projections place the Greens near 33%, while Labour’s selection of the council leader and national party stabilization efforts have kept the outcome competitive. These factors explain trader consensus clustering Green vote share probabilities between 25% and 35%, with limited separation until further polling or campaign events clarify turnout and tactical voting patterns.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Объем
$1,103Дата окончания
8 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped into a contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Recent May local elections in Camden showed the Greens reaching 28.8% against Labour’s 38.8%, reflecting gains that have carried into the parliamentary race. Polanski’s selection, combined with endorsement from independent candidate Andrew Feinstein who polled 18.9% in 2024, has consolidated left-leaning support and sustained Green momentum through intensive doorstep campaigning. Independent projections place the Greens near 33%, while Labour’s selection of the council leader and national party stabilization efforts have kept the outcome competitive. These factors explain trader consensus clustering Green vote share probabilities between 25% and 35%, with limited separation until further polling or campaign events clarify turnout and tactical voting patterns.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Объем
$1,103Дата окончания
8 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped into a contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Recent May local elections in Camden showed the Greens reaching 28.8% against Labour’s 38.8%, reflecting gains that have carried into the parliamentary race. Polanski’s selection, combined with endorsement from independent candidate Andrew Feinstein who polled 18.9% in 2024, has consolidated left-leaning support and sustained Green momentum through intensive doorstep campaigning. Independent projections place the Greens near 33%, while Labour’s selection of the council leader and national party stabilization efforts have kept the outcome competitive. These factors explain trader consensus clustering Green vote share probabilities between 25% and 35%, with limited separation until further polling or campaign events clarify turnout and tactical voting patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Наберёт ли кандидат от Лейбористской партии 40-45% голосов на дополнительных выборах в Холборне и Сент-Панкрас?
34%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от лейбористов на дополнительных выборах в Холборне и Сент-Панкрас с отрывом в 15% или больше?
35%
Да
Выиграет ли Сагал Абди-Вали дополнительные выборы в Холборне и Сент-Панкрас?
78%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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