The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP on 1 September to focus on international affairs, creating an early test for Andy Burnham’s Labour leadership in a seat held by the party since 1983. Labour selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, while the Greens chose party leader Zack Polanski, backed by independent Andrew Feinstein who took nearly 19% in 2024. Camden’s May 2026 local results showed Labour at 38.8% against the Greens’ 28.8%, highlighting left-leaning competition on housing, rents and climate issues that could fragment the vote. Typical by-election turnout patterns and opposition from Reform, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats add further variables. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with the widest probability bands clustered around 35-50% Labour share.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПромежуточные выборы в Холборне и Сент-Панкрасе: доля трудовых голосов?
Промежуточные выборы в Холборне и Сент-Панкрасе: доля трудовых голосов?
35–40% 27%
50%+ 19%
45-50% 18%
40-45% 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 окт. 2026 г.
<30%
9%
30-35%
13%
35–40%
23%
40-45%
18%
45-50%
18%
50%+
19%
35–40% 27%
50%+ 19%
45-50% 18%
40-45% 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 окт. 2026 г.
<30%
$77 Объем
9%
30-35%
$76 Объем
13%
35–40%
$87 Объем
23%
40-45%
$79 Объем
18%
45-50%
$96 Объем
18%
50%+
$158 Объем
19%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP on 1 September to focus on international affairs, creating an early test for Andy Burnham’s Labour leadership in a seat held by the party since 1983. Labour selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, while the Greens chose party leader Zack Polanski, backed by independent Andrew Feinstein who took nearly 19% in 2024. Camden’s May 2026 local results showed Labour at 38.8% against the Greens’ 28.8%, highlighting left-leaning competition on housing, rents and climate issues that could fragment the vote. Typical by-election turnout patterns and opposition from Reform, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats add further variables. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with the widest probability bands clustered around 35-50% Labour share.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Объем
$573Дата окончания
8 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP on 1 September to focus on international affairs, creating an early test for Andy Burnham’s Labour leadership in a seat held by the party since 1983. Labour selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, while the Greens chose party leader Zack Polanski, backed by independent Andrew Feinstein who took nearly 19% in 2024. Camden’s May 2026 local results showed Labour at 38.8% against the Greens’ 28.8%, highlighting left-leaning competition on housing, rents and climate issues that could fragment the vote. Typical by-election turnout patterns and opposition from Reform, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats add further variables. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with the widest probability bands clustered around 35-50% Labour share.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Объем
$573Дата окончания
8 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP on 1 September to focus on international affairs, creating an early test for Andy Burnham’s Labour leadership in a seat held by the party since 1983. Labour selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, while the Greens chose party leader Zack Polanski, backed by independent Andrew Feinstein who took nearly 19% in 2024. Camden’s May 2026 local results showed Labour at 38.8% against the Greens’ 28.8%, highlighting left-leaning competition on housing, rents and climate issues that could fragment the vote. Typical by-election turnout patterns and opposition from Reform, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats add further variables. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with the widest probability bands clustered around 35-50% Labour share.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Наберёт ли кандидат от партии зелёных менее 20% голосов на дополнительных выборах в Холборне и Сент-Панкрас?
26%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от лейбористов на дополнительных выборах в Холборне и Сент-Панкрас с отрывом в 15% или больше?
34%
Да
Выиграет ли Сагал Абди-Вали дополнительные выборы в Холборне и Сент-Панкрас?
77%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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