Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько кораблей Иран успешно атакует к 30 апреля?
Сколько кораблей Иран успешно атакует к 30 апреля?
8–9 100.0%
<2 <1%
2–3 <1%
4–5 <1%
$262,920 Объем
$262,920 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
<2
Нет
2–3
Нет
4–5
Нет
6–7
Нет
8–9
Да
10+
Нет
8–9 100.0%
<2 <1%
2–3 <1%
4–5 <1%
$262,920 Объем
$262,920 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
<2
$24,731 Объем
Нет
2–3
$43,827 Объем
Нет
4–5
$52,806 Объем
Нет
6–7
$45,107 Объем
Нет
8–9
$39,409 Объем
Да
10+
$57,039 Объем
Нет
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Объем
$262,920Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$262,920Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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