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icon for Израиль уходит из Ливана...?
Геополитика·Прекращение огня в Иране

Израиль уходит из Ливана...?

icon for Израиль уходит из Ливана...?
Геополитика·Прекращение огня в Иране

Израиль уходит из Ливана...?

$8,451,764 Объем

30 сент. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$8,451,764 Объем

Polymarket

30 сентября

$264,261 Объем

1%

31 декабря

$225,710 Объем

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli officials have conditioned any significant withdrawal from southern Lebanon on the verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces assuming full security control, per the June 26, 2026, U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement. That deal established two limited pilot zones for phased redeployment but preserved Israel's broader buffer zone, with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stating troops will remain until threats are eliminated. Hezbollah has rejected the terms, and implementation of even the pilot areas has proceeded slowly amid ongoing coordination through the trilateral military group. No major escalations or breakthroughs have occurred since late June, leaving full withdrawal timelines dependent on Lebanese Army progress against non-state armed groups.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Объем
$8,451,764
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli officials have conditioned any significant withdrawal from southern Lebanon on the verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces assuming full security control, per the June 26, 2026, U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement. That deal established two limited pilot zones for phased redeployment but preserved Israel's broader buffer zone, with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stating troops will remain until threats are eliminated. Hezbollah has rejected the terms, and implementation of even the pilot areas has proceeded slowly amid ongoing coordination through the trilateral military group. No major escalations or breakthroughs have occurred since late June, leaving full withdrawal timelines dependent on Lebanese Army progress against non-state armed groups.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Объем
$8,451,764
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...

Связанные

icon for Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

16%
icon for Израильские войска входят в Бейрут к 30 сентября?

Израильские войска входят в Бейрут к 30 сентября?

35%
Да
icon for Израильские войска войдут в Набатийю до 31 декабря?

Израильские войска войдут в Набатийю до 31 декабря?

13%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Израиль уходит из Ливана...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 7 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 декабря» с 7%, за ним следует «30 сентября» с 1%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 7¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 7%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Израиль уходит из Ливана...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $8.5 million с момента запуска рынка Apr 16, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Израиль уходит из Ливана...?», просмотри 7 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Израиль уходит из Ливана...?» — «31 декабря» всего с 7%, а «30 сентября» близко позади с 1%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Израиль уходит из Ливана...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.