Putin’s consolidated authority through Russia’s electoral system and 2020 constitutional amendments, which reset term limits to permit runs through 2036, underpins the 91.5% trader consensus against his removal as president by December 31, 2026. He began his current six-year term in 2024 with no credible domestic opposition or succession process in place, and recent statements reinforce continuity. On June 4, 2026, Putin sidestepped questions about serving until 2036, noting it was premature while emphasizing health as the only unknown factor. Ongoing military operations in Ukraine and domestic economic management show no signs of elite fractures or public pressure sufficient to force an exit, though any sudden health event or major institutional shift could still alter the timeline before the market resolves.