Russia's sustained military operations in Ukraine, where forces have recorded only incremental tactical gains amid high costs and Ukrainian countermeasures throughout 2026, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views. Western intelligence assessments, including from Dutch, Estonian, and German sources, indicate Russian conventional capabilities are stretched and oriented toward post-Ukraine contingencies no earlier than 2027–2029 rather than new full-scale invasions this year. Official Russian statements continue to frame actions as defensive or limited to existing fronts, with no verified cross-border movements or mobilizations signaling expansion. Diplomatic channels and hybrid activity discussions further support the market's 91.5% implied probability that no additional sovereign state will face invasion before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Россия в другую страну в 2026 году?
Вторгнется ли Россия в другую страну в 2026 году?
Да
$372,674 Объем
$372,674 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$372,674 Объем
$372,674 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's sustained military operations in Ukraine, where forces have recorded only incremental tactical gains amid high costs and Ukrainian countermeasures throughout 2026, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views. Western intelligence assessments, including from Dutch, Estonian, and German sources, indicate Russian conventional capabilities are stretched and oriented toward post-Ukraine contingencies no earlier than 2027–2029 rather than new full-scale invasions this year. Official Russian statements continue to frame actions as defensive or limited to existing fronts, with no verified cross-border movements or mobilizations signaling expansion. Diplomatic channels and hybrid activity discussions further support the market's 91.5% implied probability that no additional sovereign state will face invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Объем
$372,674Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's sustained military operations in Ukraine, where forces have recorded only incremental tactical gains amid high costs and Ukrainian countermeasures throughout 2026, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views. Western intelligence assessments, including from Dutch, Estonian, and German sources, indicate Russian conventional capabilities are stretched and oriented toward post-Ukraine contingencies no earlier than 2027–2029 rather than new full-scale invasions this year. Official Russian statements continue to frame actions as defensive or limited to existing fronts, with no verified cross-border movements or mobilizations signaling expansion. Diplomatic channels and hybrid activity discussions further support the market's 91.5% implied probability that no additional sovereign state will face invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$372,674Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's sustained military operations in Ukraine, where forces have recorded only incremental tactical gains amid high costs and Ukrainian countermeasures throughout 2026, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views. Western intelligence assessments, including from Dutch, Estonian, and German sources, indicate Russian conventional capabilities are stretched and oriented toward post-Ukraine contingencies no earlier than 2027–2029 rather than new full-scale invasions this year. Official Russian statements continue to frame actions as defensive or limited to existing fronts, with no verified cross-border movements or mobilizations signaling expansion. Diplomatic channels and hybrid activity discussions further support the market's 91.5% implied probability that no additional sovereign state will face invasion before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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