Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to consume substantial manpower and equipment, with forces focused on incremental gains in Donetsk amid high casualties and slowed advances through mid-2026. Recent Western intelligence assessments highlight preparations for additional mobilization after the September State Duma elections, yet these efforts target sustaining operations against Ukraine rather than opening a new front. U.S. officials, including a CIA director visit to Moscow, have issued direct warnings against kinetic actions targeting NATO territory, reinforcing deterrence along the eastern flank. Drone incursions and hybrid probes into neighboring airspace have occurred but remain below thresholds for full-scale invasion of another sovereign state. Trader consensus at 93.5% for no new invasion reflects these capacity constraints and escalation risks through the remainder of the year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
7% вероятность
$514,787 Объем
$514,787 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
7% вероятность
$514,787 Объем
$514,787 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to consume substantial manpower and equipment, with forces focused on incremental gains in Donetsk amid high casualties and slowed advances through mid-2026. Recent Western intelligence assessments highlight preparations for additional mobilization after the September State Duma elections, yet these efforts target sustaining operations against Ukraine rather than opening a new front. U.S. officials, including a CIA director visit to Moscow, have issued direct warnings against kinetic actions targeting NATO territory, reinforcing deterrence along the eastern flank. Drone incursions and hybrid probes into neighboring airspace have occurred but remain below thresholds for full-scale invasion of another sovereign state. Trader consensus at 93.5% for no new invasion reflects these capacity constraints and escalation risks through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Объем
$514,787Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to consume substantial manpower and equipment, with forces focused on incremental gains in Donetsk amid high casualties and slowed advances through mid-2026. Recent Western intelligence assessments highlight preparations for additional mobilization after the September State Duma elections, yet these efforts target sustaining operations against Ukraine rather than opening a new front. U.S. officials, including a CIA director visit to Moscow, have issued direct warnings against kinetic actions targeting NATO territory, reinforcing deterrence along the eastern flank. Drone incursions and hybrid probes into neighboring airspace have occurred but remain below thresholds for full-scale invasion of another sovereign state. Trader consensus at 93.5% for no new invasion reflects these capacity constraints and escalation risks through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$514,787Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to consume substantial manpower and equipment, with forces focused on incremental gains in Donetsk amid high casualties and slowed advances through mid-2026. Recent Western intelligence assessments highlight preparations for additional mobilization after the September State Duma elections, yet these efforts target sustaining operations against Ukraine rather than opening a new front. U.S. officials, including a CIA director visit to Moscow, have issued direct warnings against kinetic actions targeting NATO territory, reinforcing deterrence along the eastern flank. Drone incursions and hybrid probes into neighboring airspace have occurred but remain below thresholds for full-scale invasion of another sovereign state. Trader consensus at 93.5% for no new invasion reflects these capacity constraints and escalation risks through the remainder of the year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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