Russia's sustained military operations in Ukraine, where forces have recorded only incremental tactical gains amid high costs and Ukrainian countermeasures throughout 2026, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views. Western intelligence assessments, including from Dutch, Estonian, and German sources, indicate Russian conventional capabilities are stretched and oriented toward post-Ukraine contingencies no earlier than 2027–2029 rather than new full-scale invasions this year. Official Russian statements continue to frame actions as defensive or limited to existing fronts, with no verified cross-border movements or mobilizations signaling expansion. Diplomatic channels and hybrid activity discussions further support the market's 91.5% implied probability that no additional sovereign state will face invasion before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Россия в другую страну в 2026 году?
Да
$372,674 Объем
$372,674 Объем
Да
$372,674 Объем
$372,674 Объем
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's sustained military operations in Ukraine, where forces have recorded only incremental tactical gains amid high costs and Ukrainian countermeasures throughout 2026, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views. Western intelligence assessments, including from Dutch, Estonian, and German sources, indicate Russian conventional capabilities are stretched and oriented toward post-Ukraine contingencies no earlier than 2027–2029 rather than new full-scale invasions this year. Official Russian statements continue to frame actions as defensive or limited to existing fronts, with no verified cross-border movements or mobilizations signaling expansion. Diplomatic channels and hybrid activity discussions further support the market's 91.5% implied probability that no additional sovereign state will face invasion before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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