Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to consume its available forces, with Russian advances slowed significantly amid Ukrainian counterattacks and high casualties that have prompted internal discussions of further mobilization after September 2026 elections. Western intelligence assessments, including from NATO members, indicate Russia lacks the conventional capacity or troop concentrations needed for a full-scale invasion of another country before 2029, despite periodic warnings of possible hybrid provocations, drone incursions, or limited strikes to test alliance resolve. Recent diplomatic exchanges and official Russian statements denying aggressive intent toward additional states align with the absence of visible preparations for a new conventional offensive in the remaining months of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
6% вероятность
$475,125 Объем
$475,125 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$475,125 Объем
$475,125 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to consume its available forces, with Russian advances slowed significantly amid Ukrainian counterattacks and high casualties that have prompted internal discussions of further mobilization after September 2026 elections. Western intelligence assessments, including from NATO members, indicate Russia lacks the conventional capacity or troop concentrations needed for a full-scale invasion of another country before 2029, despite periodic warnings of possible hybrid provocations, drone incursions, or limited strikes to test alliance resolve. Recent diplomatic exchanges and official Russian statements denying aggressive intent toward additional states align with the absence of visible preparations for a new conventional offensive in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Объем
$475,125Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to consume its available forces, with Russian advances slowed significantly amid Ukrainian counterattacks and high casualties that have prompted internal discussions of further mobilization after September 2026 elections. Western intelligence assessments, including from NATO members, indicate Russia lacks the conventional capacity or troop concentrations needed for a full-scale invasion of another country before 2029, despite periodic warnings of possible hybrid provocations, drone incursions, or limited strikes to test alliance resolve. Recent diplomatic exchanges and official Russian statements denying aggressive intent toward additional states align with the absence of visible preparations for a new conventional offensive in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$475,125Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to consume its available forces, with Russian advances slowed significantly amid Ukrainian counterattacks and high casualties that have prompted internal discussions of further mobilization after September 2026 elections. Western intelligence assessments, including from NATO members, indicate Russia lacks the conventional capacity or troop concentrations needed for a full-scale invasion of another country before 2029, despite periodic warnings of possible hybrid provocations, drone incursions, or limited strikes to test alliance resolve. Recent diplomatic exchanges and official Russian statements denying aggressive intent toward additional states align with the absence of visible preparations for a new conventional offensive in the remaining months of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы