Strong bilateral security cooperation, deep economic integration under the USMCA, and sustained Mexican-led operations against cartels have anchored trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026. Early-year rhetoric from the Trump administration about potential strikes or deployments prompted swift diplomatic pushback from President Sheinbaum, who rejected ground forces while expanding intelligence sharing, extraditions, and border deployments. Resulting fentanyl seizures and historically low U.S. migrant encounters reinforced this path, with U.S. efforts centered on tariffs, designations, and domestic enforcement rather than direct intervention. An unforeseen late-year security crisis or major breakdown in relations remains the primary scenario that could still shift the current 97.5% implied probability for No.