**Strong bilateral security cooperation and a recent political realignment in Colombia underpin the 97.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion in 2026.** Following tensions earlier in the year under former President Gustavo Petro, the June 2026 election of Abelardo de la Espriella shifted policy toward close alignment with Washington. Since his August inauguration, the new administration has joined the U.S.-led Shield of the Americas counter-narcotics coalition, authorized joint military operations against armed groups and trafficking networks, and accepted a proposed $1 billion security assistance package. U.S. Southern Command visits and coordinated interdictions in the Pacific and along the Ecuador border have reinforced partnership rather than confrontation. Historical precedent of U.S.-Colombia counter-drug collaboration and the absence of territorial disputes or acute crises further support the current pricing. Only an abrupt diplomatic rupture, major escalation in regional instability, or unforeseen leadership change could materially alter the outlook before year-end.