Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets beginning in February 2026 have focused on degrading nuclear and missile capabilities through air and naval operations rather than ground forces. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June and expected formalization by June 19, signal movement toward de-escalation and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Military analyses highlight the prohibitive costs and logistical barriers of any ground invasion of Iran’s large territory, consistent with the Trump administration’s emphasis on achievable objectives via strikes and sanctions. With resolution of the current conflict appearing likely through negotiations before year-end, traders assign an 87.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion before 2027.