Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a memorandum of understanding, with a signing targeted for mid-June 2026 and a 60-day timeline for broader terms, represent the primary driver behind the 88.5% "No" odds on a U.S. invasion before 2027. Following the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that initiated major hostilities, killed Iran's supreme leader, and prompted a April ceasefire, recent exchanges have centered on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and nuclear commitments rather than escalation to ground operations. Renewed limited strikes in early June have not altered the diplomatic track, and traders assign low probability to a shift toward occupation amid active mediation and historical barriers to large-scale land campaigns in the region.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнутся ли США в Иран до 2027 года?
Да
$37,540,701 Объем
$37,540,701 Объем
Да
$37,540,701 Объем
$37,540,701 Объем
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a memorandum of understanding, with a signing targeted for mid-June 2026 and a 60-day timeline for broader terms, represent the primary driver behind the 88.5% "No" odds on a U.S. invasion before 2027. Following the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that initiated major hostilities, killed Iran's supreme leader, and prompted a April ceasefire, recent exchanges have centered on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and nuclear commitments rather than escalation to ground operations. Renewed limited strikes in early June have not altered the diplomatic track, and traders assign low probability to a shift toward occupation amid active mediation and historical barriers to large-scale land campaigns in the region.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы