**Recent diplomatic progress and de-escalation in the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict have anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027.** A U.S.-Israeli military campaign began with strikes on February 28, 2026, followed by Iranian missile and drone retaliation, a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and repeated U.S. threats of expanded strikes on infrastructure. However, the sides reached a ceasefire in early April and, by mid-June 2026, finalized the text of a memorandum of understanding mediated by Pakistan. This MoU calls for an immediate end to hostilities (including in Lebanon), reopening of the Strait, reduced U.S. regional forces, limited sanctions relief, and a 60-day negotiation window on Iran’s nuclear program, with signing targeted for June 19. Analysts and officials have emphasized the substantial logistical, political, and escalation risks of any large-scale ground operation against Iranian territory, leading the Pentagon and administration to prioritize airstrikes, blockades, and diplomacy over invasion plans. With active talks underway and no verified U.S. troop movements aimed at seizing Iranian land, the current 87.5% “No” probability reflects the market’s assessment that the diplomatic track will hold through the end of 2026 absent a major breakdown.