The trader consensus favoring “No” at 88.5% reflects the recent shift from direct U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and missile exchanges under Operation Epic Fury—initiated February 28, 2026, and concluded with a conditional ceasefire in April—to active diplomatic negotiations mediated by third parties. U.S. objectives centered on degrading Iranian nuclear and missile capabilities plus leadership targets rather than territorial control or occupation, with Pentagon planning explicitly avoiding large-scale ground forces amid concerns over escalation risks, costs, and historical precedent. As of mid-June 2026, talks toward a broader peace framework continue, with both sides signaling interest in formal resolution within the next 60 days and no verified preparations for a full invasion before year-end. These factors, combined with the short window remaining until 2027, underpin the low implied probability of a U.S. ground offensive in the resolution period.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнутся ли США в Иран до 2027 года?
Да
$37,540,299 Объем
$37,540,299 Объем
Да
$37,540,299 Объем
$37,540,299 Объем
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The trader consensus favoring “No” at 88.5% reflects the recent shift from direct U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and missile exchanges under Operation Epic Fury—initiated February 28, 2026, and concluded with a conditional ceasefire in April—to active diplomatic negotiations mediated by third parties. U.S. objectives centered on degrading Iranian nuclear and missile capabilities plus leadership targets rather than territorial control or occupation, with Pentagon planning explicitly avoiding large-scale ground forces amid concerns over escalation risks, costs, and historical precedent. As of mid-June 2026, talks toward a broader peace framework continue, with both sides signaling interest in formal resolution within the next 60 days and no verified preparations for a full invasion before year-end. These factors, combined with the short window remaining until 2027, underpin the low implied probability of a U.S. ground offensive in the resolution period.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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