The trader consensus favoring “No” at 88.5% reflects the recent shift from direct U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and missile exchanges under Operation Epic Fury—initiated February 28, 2026, and concluded with a conditional ceasefire in April—to active diplomatic negotiations mediated by third parties. U.S. objectives centered on degrading Iranian nuclear and missile capabilities plus leadership targets rather than territorial control or occupation, with Pentagon planning explicitly avoiding large-scale ground forces amid concerns over escalation risks, costs, and historical precedent. As of mid-June 2026, talks toward a broader peace framework continue, with both sides signaling interest in formal resolution within the next 60 days and no verified preparations for a full invasion before year-end. These factors, combined with the short window remaining until 2027, underpin the low implied probability of a U.S. ground offensive in the resolution period.