**Recent U.S.-Iran military operations, launched in late February 2026, have relied on airstrikes, missile targeting of nuclear and military sites, and naval blockades rather than ground forces.** Coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded Iranian capabilities, but produced no sustained U.S. troop presence inside Iranian territory. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire took effect in April and has been extended amid ongoing nuclear and sanctions talks, with a draft agreement reportedly near completion in mid-June that includes limits on enrichment and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. statements and Pentagon planning have emphasized air and naval pressure alongside diplomacy over large-scale ground commitments, consistent with analysts' assessments of major logistical, escalation, and political barriers. Traders assign an 87.5% probability to "No" invasion before 2027, reflecting the shift from open conflict toward de-escalation and negotiated outcomes within the resolution window.