Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, centered on ending the 2026 conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February, now drive the elevated probability assigned to no U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Recent developments include announcements of a near-final memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift blockades, and address nuclear issues through further talks, with a signing expected in mid-June 2026. Ceasefire arrangements since April, intermittent strikes, and mediation by Pakistan and others have shifted focus from military escalation to de-escalation, consistent with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A full-scale invasion to control Iranian territory remains unlikely absent major reversal of these diplomatic tracks before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнутся ли США в Иран до 2027 года?
Да
$37,502,209 Объем
$37,502,209 Объем
Да
$37,502,209 Объем
$37,502,209 Объем
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, centered on ending the 2026 conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February, now drive the elevated probability assigned to no U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Recent developments include announcements of a near-final memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift blockades, and address nuclear issues through further talks, with a signing expected in mid-June 2026. Ceasefire arrangements since April, intermittent strikes, and mediation by Pakistan and others have shifted focus from military escalation to de-escalation, consistent with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A full-scale invasion to control Iranian territory remains unlikely absent major reversal of these diplomatic tracks before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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