Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a memorandum of understanding, with a signing targeted for mid-June 2026 and a 60-day timeline for broader terms, represent the primary driver behind the 88.5% "No" odds on a U.S. invasion before 2027. Following the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that initiated major hostilities, killed Iran's supreme leader, and prompted a April ceasefire, recent exchanges have centered on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and nuclear commitments rather than escalation to ground operations. Renewed limited strikes in early June have not altered the diplomatic track, and traders assign low probability to a shift toward occupation amid active mediation and historical barriers to large-scale land campaigns in the region.