Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and others, have advanced toward a memorandum of understanding expected to formally end the 2026 conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in February. As of mid-June 2026, statements from President Trump and Iranian officials indicate progress on issues including the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear restrictions, and sanctions relief, with a signing potentially imminent. These diplomatic developments follow a period of limited military operations focused on air and missile strikes rather than ground forces. Traders assign the "No" outcome an 87.5% implied probability, reflecting the current trajectory of de-escalation and the absence of indicators pointing to a full-scale U.S. invasion in the months ahead.