Iran’s ongoing military campaign against US and allied targets in the Gulf, part of the broader 2026 conflict that began in February, centers trader attention on invasion risks to Kuwait. Iranian missile and drone strikes have repeatedly targeted Kuwaiti infrastructure and US-linked sites through July and into early August 2026, prompting repeated Kuwaiti interceptions and official condemnations of sovereignty violations. Parliamentary figures in Tehran have explicitly warned of potential ground operations against Kuwait should Washington launch boots-on-the-ground actions inside Iran, aligning with Iran’s pattern of horizontal escalation to raise costs for Gulf hosts of US forces. Diplomatic channels on the Strait of Hormuz and indirect nuclear talks continue amid these strikes, with any shift in US ground posture or Iranian proxy activity likely to influence near-term probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИран вторгается в Кувейт...?
Иран вторгается в Кувейт...?
$1,004,002 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
1%
$1,004,002 Объем
31 августа
$760,423 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify.
Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait.
Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting.
Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory.
Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s ongoing military campaign against US and allied targets in the Gulf, part of the broader 2026 conflict that began in February, centers trader attention on invasion risks to Kuwait. Iranian missile and drone strikes have repeatedly targeted Kuwaiti infrastructure and US-linked sites through July and into early August 2026, prompting repeated Kuwaiti interceptions and official condemnations of sovereignty violations. Parliamentary figures in Tehran have explicitly warned of potential ground operations against Kuwait should Washington launch boots-on-the-ground actions inside Iran, aligning with Iran’s pattern of horizontal escalation to raise costs for Gulf hosts of US forces. Diplomatic channels on the Strait of Hormuz and indirect nuclear talks continue amid these strikes, with any shift in US ground posture or Iranian proxy activity likely to influence near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify.
Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait.
Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting.
Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory.
Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify.
Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait.
Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting.
Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory.
Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 19, 2026, 10:34 PM ET
Объем
$1,004,002Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 19, 2026, 10:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify.
Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait.
Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting.
Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory.
Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s ongoing military campaign against US and allied targets in the Gulf, part of the broader 2026 conflict that began in February, centers trader attention on invasion risks to Kuwait. Iranian missile and drone strikes have repeatedly targeted Kuwaiti infrastructure and US-linked sites through July and into early August 2026, prompting repeated Kuwaiti interceptions and official condemnations of sovereignty violations. Parliamentary figures in Tehran have explicitly warned of potential ground operations against Kuwait should Washington launch boots-on-the-ground actions inside Iran, aligning with Iran’s pattern of horizontal escalation to raise costs for Gulf hosts of US forces. Diplomatic channels on the Strait of Hormuz and indirect nuclear talks continue amid these strikes, with any shift in US ground posture or Iranian proxy activity likely to influence near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify.
Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait.
Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting.
Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory.
Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify.
Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait.
Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting.
Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory.
Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,004,002Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 19, 2026, 10:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s ongoing military campaign against US and allied targets in the Gulf, part of the broader 2026 conflict that began in February, centers trader attention on invasion risks to Kuwait. Iranian missile and drone strikes have repeatedly targeted Kuwaiti infrastructure and US-linked sites through July and into early August 2026, prompting repeated Kuwaiti interceptions and official condemnations of sovereignty violations. Parliamentary figures in Tehran have explicitly warned of potential ground operations against Kuwait should Washington launch boots-on-the-ground actions inside Iran, aligning with Iran’s pattern of horizontal escalation to raise costs for Gulf hosts of US forces. Diplomatic channels on the Strait of Hormuz and indirect nuclear talks continue amid these strikes, with any shift in US ground posture or Iranian proxy activity likely to influence near-term probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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