US and Iranian officials signed a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that ended recent conflict and established a framework for addressing Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, including downblending on site under IAEA supervision as the minimum approach, with further details deferred to final negotiations. The agreement froze the nuclear status quo for up to 60 days (extendable) while talks continue on enrichment limits, stockpile disposition, and verification, but it does not require immediate export or US physical custody of the material. Much of Iran's pre-strike 60 percent enriched uranium remains inaccessible under rubble at sites like Isfahan following 2025-2026 military operations, with IAEA inspectors still facing access limits. Trader consensus reflects these procedural and verification hurdles, plus uncertainty over whether any final deal by year-end would result in US possession rather than on-site dilution or third-party handling.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСША получают иранский обогащенный уран...?
$29,230,421 Объем
30 сентября
1%
31 декабря
5%
$29,230,421 Объем
30 сентября
1%
31 декабря
5%
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 1, 2026, 11:37 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...US and Iranian officials signed a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that ended recent conflict and established a framework for addressing Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, including downblending on site under IAEA supervision as the minimum approach, with further details deferred to final negotiations. The agreement froze the nuclear status quo for up to 60 days (extendable) while talks continue on enrichment limits, stockpile disposition, and verification, but it does not require immediate export or US physical custody of the material. Much of Iran's pre-strike 60 percent enriched uranium remains inaccessible under rubble at sites like Isfahan following 2025-2026 military operations, with IAEA inspectors still facing access limits. Trader consensus reflects these procedural and verification hurdles, plus uncertainty over whether any final deal by year-end would result in US possession rather than on-site dilution or third-party handling.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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