U.S. policy under the second Trump administration has centered on economic pressure and targeted diplomatic maneuvering rather than military invasion of Cuba. Following the January 2026 intervention in Venezuela, the administration imposed a fuel blockade and tariffs on third-country oil suppliers to Cuba, paired with an executive order citing national security threats and renewed state sponsor of terrorism designation. Officials have pursued negotiations for reforms or leadership transition, including an indictment of Raúl Castro and intelligence efforts to identify potential successors, while deploying surveillance assets and naval presence in the Caribbean. Cuba’s resulting economic crisis has prompted prisoner releases and openness to limited dialogue, but Havana rejects preconditions involving government change. With the 2026 calendar year more than halfway through and no authorization or mobilization for large-scale operations, traders assign overwhelming probability to no invasion occurring by year-end.