President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign violations of the zero-yield standard, initially raised market attention. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized subcritical experiments and non-explosive activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. As of September 2026, the U.S. has conducted no explosive nuclear tests since the 1992 moratorium, with officials and congressional testimony confirming that science-based stockpile stewardship continues to certify reliability without such tests. Proposed legislation requiring congressional approval, bipartisan state resolutions opposing resumption, and international monitoring concerns have reinforced barriers. Trader consensus reflects these procedural, technical, and diplomatic hurdles, with any shift likely tied to future executive decisions or verified foreign actions within resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$795,296 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября 2026 года
1%
31 декабря 2026 года
5%
$795,296 Объем
30 сентября 2026 года
$57,565 Объем
1%
31 декабря 2026 года
$76,920 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign violations of the zero-yield standard, initially raised market attention. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized subcritical experiments and non-explosive activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. As of September 2026, the U.S. has conducted no explosive nuclear tests since the 1992 moratorium, with officials and congressional testimony confirming that science-based stockpile stewardship continues to certify reliability without such tests. Proposed legislation requiring congressional approval, bipartisan state resolutions opposing resumption, and international monitoring concerns have reinforced barriers. Trader consensus reflects these procedural, technical, and diplomatic hurdles, with any shift likely tied to future executive decisions or verified foreign actions within resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$795,296Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign violations of the zero-yield standard, initially raised market attention. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized subcritical experiments and non-explosive activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. As of September 2026, the U.S. has conducted no explosive nuclear tests since the 1992 moratorium, with officials and congressional testimony confirming that science-based stockpile stewardship continues to certify reliability without such tests. Proposed legislation requiring congressional approval, bipartisan state resolutions opposing resumption, and international monitoring concerns have reinforced barriers. Trader consensus reflects these procedural, technical, and diplomatic hurdles, with any shift likely tied to future executive decisions or verified foreign actions within resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$795,296Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign violations of the zero-yield standard, initially raised market attention. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized subcritical experiments and non-explosive activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. As of September 2026, the U.S. has conducted no explosive nuclear tests since the 1992 moratorium, with officials and congressional testimony confirming that science-based stockpile stewardship continues to certify reliability without such tests. Proposed legislation requiring congressional approval, bipartisan state resolutions opposing resumption, and international monitoring concerns have reinforced barriers. Trader consensus reflects these procedural, technical, and diplomatic hurdles, with any shift likely tied to future executive decisions or verified foreign actions within resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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