Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 2% by June 30, 13% cumulative by December 31, 2026, reflecting steep technical, political, and diplomatic barriers despite the National Defense Authorization Act authorizing underground tests at Nevada Test Site. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing has yielded no concrete preparations, as experts estimate 24-36 months to ready the site dormant since 1992, amid ongoing stockpile stewardship certification without explosive tests. A March 24 Senate hearing saw a top official decline to rule out resumption, but Nevada lawmakers and arms control advocates oppose funding, with no NNSA announcements advancing plans; FY2027 budget debates could influence momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$641,216 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
2%
30 сентября 2026 года
6%
31 декабря 2026 года
13%
$641,216 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$24,401 Объем
2%
30 сентября 2026 года
$2,322 Объем
6%
31 декабря 2026 года
$4,274 Объем
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 2% by June 30, 13% cumulative by December 31, 2026, reflecting steep technical, political, and diplomatic barriers despite the National Defense Authorization Act authorizing underground tests at Nevada Test Site. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing has yielded no concrete preparations, as experts estimate 24-36 months to ready the site dormant since 1992, amid ongoing stockpile stewardship certification without explosive tests. A March 24 Senate hearing saw a top official decline to rule out resumption, but Nevada lawmakers and arms control advocates oppose funding, with no NNSA announcements advancing plans; FY2027 budget debates could influence momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$641,216Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 2% by June 30, 13% cumulative by December 31, 2026, reflecting steep technical, political, and diplomatic barriers despite the National Defense Authorization Act authorizing underground tests at Nevada Test Site. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing has yielded no concrete preparations, as experts estimate 24-36 months to ready the site dormant since 1992, amid ongoing stockpile stewardship certification without explosive tests. A March 24 Senate hearing saw a top official decline to rule out resumption, but Nevada lawmakers and arms control advocates oppose funding, with no NNSA announcements advancing plans; FY2027 budget debates could influence momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$641,216Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 2% by June 30, 13% cumulative by December 31, 2026, reflecting steep technical, political, and diplomatic barriers despite the National Defense Authorization Act authorizing underground tests at Nevada Test Site. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing has yielded no concrete preparations, as experts estimate 24-36 months to ready the site dormant since 1992, amid ongoing stockpile stewardship certification without explosive tests. A March 24 Senate hearing saw a top official decline to rule out resumption, but Nevada lawmakers and arms control advocates oppose funding, with no NNSA announcements advancing plans; FY2027 budget debates could influence momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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