President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing concerns over their activities, initially elevated trader focus on the possibility of U.S. resumption. Administration clarifications quickly followed, specifying non-explosive activities and confirming no plans for yield-producing underground tests. The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium since 1992, supported by annual stockpile stewardship assessments that have repeatedly found no technical requirement for explosive testing. Ongoing policy debates center on adversary compliance with testing standards, New START expiration, and readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site. Legislative measures have been introduced to require congressional approval before any shift in policy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$668,900 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
1%
30 сентября 2026 года
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
8%
$668,900 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$41,053 Объем
1%
30 сентября 2026 года
$7,044 Объем
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
$10,584 Объем
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing concerns over their activities, initially elevated trader focus on the possibility of U.S. resumption. Administration clarifications quickly followed, specifying non-explosive activities and confirming no plans for yield-producing underground tests. The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium since 1992, supported by annual stockpile stewardship assessments that have repeatedly found no technical requirement for explosive testing. Ongoing policy debates center on adversary compliance with testing standards, New START expiration, and readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site. Legislative measures have been introduced to require congressional approval before any shift in policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$668,900Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing concerns over their activities, initially elevated trader focus on the possibility of U.S. resumption. Administration clarifications quickly followed, specifying non-explosive activities and confirming no plans for yield-producing underground tests. The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium since 1992, supported by annual stockpile stewardship assessments that have repeatedly found no technical requirement for explosive testing. Ongoing policy debates center on adversary compliance with testing standards, New START expiration, and readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site. Legislative measures have been introduced to require congressional approval before any shift in policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$668,900Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing concerns over their activities, initially elevated trader focus on the possibility of U.S. resumption. Administration clarifications quickly followed, specifying non-explosive activities and confirming no plans for yield-producing underground tests. The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium since 1992, supported by annual stockpile stewardship assessments that have repeatedly found no technical requirement for explosive testing. Ongoing policy debates center on adversary compliance with testing standards, New START expiration, and readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site. Legislative measures have been introduced to require congressional approval before any shift in policy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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