President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—last underground detonation in 1992—sparked debate but yielded no explosive tests, with Energy Secretary clarifying focus on non-nuclear activities amid NNSA assertions of no technical need via stockpile stewardship. Trader consensus prices a 13% implied probability of a nuclear chain reaction detonation by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent political hurdles, congressional opposition like Senator Rosen's April 13 Nevada National Security Site visit, and Russia's warnings of reciprocal actions. Recent NNSA April 17 chemical explosion experiment aids foreign test detection, not U.S. resumption, while early March U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and February State Department claims of a Chinese test heighten tensions without advancing preparations. Monitor Department of Energy budget debates and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty hearings for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$641,216 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
2%
30 сентября 2026 года
6%
31 декабря 2026 года
13%
$641,216 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$24,401 Объем
2%
30 сентября 2026 года
$2,322 Объем
6%
31 декабря 2026 года
$4,274 Объем
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—last underground detonation in 1992—sparked debate but yielded no explosive tests, with Energy Secretary clarifying focus on non-nuclear activities amid NNSA assertions of no technical need via stockpile stewardship. Trader consensus prices a 13% implied probability of a nuclear chain reaction detonation by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent political hurdles, congressional opposition like Senator Rosen's April 13 Nevada National Security Site visit, and Russia's warnings of reciprocal actions. Recent NNSA April 17 chemical explosion experiment aids foreign test detection, not U.S. resumption, while early March U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and February State Department claims of a Chinese test heighten tensions without advancing preparations. Monitor Department of Energy budget debates and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty hearings for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$641,216Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—last underground detonation in 1992—sparked debate but yielded no explosive tests, with Energy Secretary clarifying focus on non-nuclear activities amid NNSA assertions of no technical need via stockpile stewardship. Trader consensus prices a 13% implied probability of a nuclear chain reaction detonation by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent political hurdles, congressional opposition like Senator Rosen's April 13 Nevada National Security Site visit, and Russia's warnings of reciprocal actions. Recent NNSA April 17 chemical explosion experiment aids foreign test detection, not U.S. resumption, while early March U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and February State Department claims of a Chinese test heighten tensions without advancing preparations. Monitor Department of Energy budget debates and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty hearings for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$641,216Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—last underground detonation in 1992—sparked debate but yielded no explosive tests, with Energy Secretary clarifying focus on non-nuclear activities amid NNSA assertions of no technical need via stockpile stewardship. Trader consensus prices a 13% implied probability of a nuclear chain reaction detonation by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent political hurdles, congressional opposition like Senator Rosen's April 13 Nevada National Security Site visit, and Russia's warnings of reciprocal actions. Recent NNSA April 17 chemical explosion experiment aids foreign test detection, not U.S. resumption, while early March U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and February State Department claims of a Chinese test heighten tensions without advancing preparations. Monitor Department of Energy budget debates and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty hearings for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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