Tensions between the United States and Cuba have escalated since the January 2026 U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which cut off Venezuelan oil shipments and prompted the Trump administration to impose a fuel blockade and additional sanctions via executive order. These measures have triggered severe energy shortages, blackouts, and economic strain on the island, which U.S. officials have framed as leverage for leadership changes or reforms, alongside an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Military signaling includes increased surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier group to the Caribbean, SOUTHCOM planning exercises, and visits to Guantánamo Bay, though no kinetic operations have occurred. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to U.S. military action by year-end, citing competing priorities such as Iran commitments, the political and logistical risks of ground operations, and stalled diplomatic channels. Upcoming indicators include further sanctions enforcement, naval movements, or shifts in Cuban regime responses that could alter contingency timelines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВоенные действия США против Кубы с помощью...?
Военные действия США против Кубы с помощью...?
$7,279,113 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
19%
$7,279,113 Объем
31 декабря
$5,100,008 Объем
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Tensions between the United States and Cuba have escalated since the January 2026 U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which cut off Venezuelan oil shipments and prompted the Trump administration to impose a fuel blockade and additional sanctions via executive order. These measures have triggered severe energy shortages, blackouts, and economic strain on the island, which U.S. officials have framed as leverage for leadership changes or reforms, alongside an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Military signaling includes increased surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier group to the Caribbean, SOUTHCOM planning exercises, and visits to Guantánamo Bay, though no kinetic operations have occurred. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to U.S. military action by year-end, citing competing priorities such as Iran commitments, the political and logistical risks of ground operations, and stalled diplomatic channels. Upcoming indicators include further sanctions enforcement, naval movements, or shifts in Cuban regime responses that could alter contingency timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Объем
$7,279,113Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Tensions between the United States and Cuba have escalated since the January 2026 U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which cut off Venezuelan oil shipments and prompted the Trump administration to impose a fuel blockade and additional sanctions via executive order. These measures have triggered severe energy shortages, blackouts, and economic strain on the island, which U.S. officials have framed as leverage for leadership changes or reforms, alongside an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Military signaling includes increased surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier group to the Caribbean, SOUTHCOM planning exercises, and visits to Guantánamo Bay, though no kinetic operations have occurred. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to U.S. military action by year-end, citing competing priorities such as Iran commitments, the political and logistical risks of ground operations, and stalled diplomatic channels. Upcoming indicators include further sanctions enforcement, naval movements, or shifts in Cuban regime responses that could alter contingency timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$7,279,113Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between the United States and Cuba have escalated since the January 2026 U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which cut off Venezuelan oil shipments and prompted the Trump administration to impose a fuel blockade and additional sanctions via executive order. These measures have triggered severe energy shortages, blackouts, and economic strain on the island, which U.S. officials have framed as leverage for leadership changes or reforms, alongside an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Military signaling includes increased surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier group to the Caribbean, SOUTHCOM planning exercises, and visits to Guantánamo Bay, though no kinetic operations have occurred. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to U.S. military action by year-end, citing competing priorities such as Iran commitments, the political and logistical risks of ground operations, and stalled diplomatic channels. Upcoming indicators include further sanctions enforcement, naval movements, or shifts in Cuban regime responses that could alter contingency timelines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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