How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8 34.5%
9 31.3%
10 13.7%
11 9.2%
$1,536,198 Объем
$1,536,198 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
8
$285,851 Объем
35%
9
$29,396 Объем
31%
10
$23,306 Объем
14%
11
$23,091 Объем
9%
12
$41,190 Объем
3%
13
$96,211 Объем
2%
14
$146,539 Объем
1%
15+
$124,460 Объем
1%
8 34.5%
9 31.3%
10 13.7%
11 9.2%
$1,536,198 Объем
$1,536,198 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
8
$285,851 Объем
35%
9
$29,396 Объем
31%
10
$23,306 Объем
14%
11
$23,091 Объем
9%
12
$41,190 Объем
3%
13
$96,211 Объем
2%
14
$146,539 Объем
1%
15+
$124,460 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Jun 26 2026
US launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets after drone attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 36%12%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This marked a significant escalation and reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
Jun 26 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
8 jumps to 15%10%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz, retaliating for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. This was the third such strike in three weeks, confirming US military action limited to Iran.
Jun 26 2026
US launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
9 jumps to 36%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites near the Strait and on Qeshm Island, marking the latest US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
Jun 26 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
9 jumps to 34%9%
The US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz on June 26, 2026, in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. This confirmed continued US military action on Iranian soil during 2026, reinforcing market expectations for strikes in Iran only.
Jun 19 2026
US Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
On June 19, 2026, US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia in coordination with the Somali government. This continued the US campaign against Islamist militants in East Africa.
Jun 3 2026
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian targets after missile and drone attacks
12 dips to 3%2%
On June 3, 2026, the US military carried out strikes against Iranian military facilities on Qeshm Island in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries. This escalation reinforced the US military presence and strike activity in multiple countries in the region.
Jun 1 2026
US bombs Iranian military sites and downs missiles fired at troops in Kuwait
The US bombed radar and drone sites in Iran after Tehran shot down an American drone. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on US troops in Kuwait, which were intercepted. This event confirmed ongoing US strikes on Iranian soil only.
May 27 2026
US conducts new strikes on Iranian military site and drones near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 11%4%
On May 27, 2026, the US military carried out strikes on an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down Iranian attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming ongoing US military action solely on Iranian territory.
May 15 2026
US and Nigeria begin joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria launched joint military operations including airstrikes against Islamic State West Africa Province and Boko Haram militants in northeastern Nigeria, marking US military action on Nigerian soil.
May 15 2026
US and Nigerian forces launch joint military operation with airstrikes against ISWAP in Nigeria
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria began a joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria, including special forces raids and multiple rounds of airstrikes. This operation killed senior ISWAP leaders and intensified US military involvement in Nigeria.
May 7 2026
US strikes Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island
In response to missile, drone, and boat attacks on US destroyers, the US conducted strikes on Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This reinforced the market's view that US military action was confined to Iran.
May 7 2026
US launches missile and drone strikes on Iranian military facilities
10 rises to 19%4%
The US military launched strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for attacks on US forces, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil. This event influenced market prices by increasing the perceived number of countries targeted by US strikes.
May 1 2026
US disables Iranian oil tankers amid renewed missile and drone attacks in Gulf
12 dips to 3%2%
The US Central Command disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to reach Iranian ports, enforcing a naval blockade. This action coincided with fresh missile and drone attacks reported by the UAE, indicating ongoing US military operations in the Gulf region and sustaining market expectations for strikes in multiple Middle Eastern countries.
Mar 12 2026
US conducts multiple airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq
Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, the US has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces. These strikes have killed dozens of militia members and targeted multiple bases across Iraq.
Mar 3 2026
US conducts strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown
12 dips to 2%3%
Following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US military launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites on Qeshm Island and Goruk. This action escalated hostilities and was part of ongoing US military operations against Iran, influencing market prices for strikes in the Middle East.
Mar 3 2026
Drone strikes near US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait amid escalating conflict
12 dips to 2%3%
Drone activity targeted areas near US diplomatic compounds in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, leading to heightened security alerts and embassy closures. This expansion of conflict zones to include diplomatic sites underscored the widening scope of US military involvement in the region.
Mar 3 2026
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
12 dips to 2%3%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, marking a sharp escalation and retaliation for US strikes. These attacks increased regional tensions and the likelihood of further US military responses in multiple countries.
Mar 3 2026
Trump administration expands counterterrorism operations including strikes in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia
In early 2026, the Trump administration approved the expansion of counterterrorism operations that included bombing targets in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia, reflecting a broader military engagement across multiple countries.
Mar 1 2026
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 drops to 7%7%
The US intensified its air campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, demonstrating sustained military action exclusively against Iranian targets in early March 2026.
Mar 1 2026
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 drops to 0%5%
The US intensified its bombing campaign against Iranian military sites using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, reinforcing the focus on Iran and limiting expectations of strikes in other countries.
Mar 1 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to attacks
9 jumps to 8%5%
Following the initial strikes, the US continued targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and radar sites, responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases and allies in the region. This sustained campaign confirmed ongoing US military action on Iranian soil.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israeli forces launch massive strikes on Iranian military targets
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This included strikes on Iranian military and government sites, escalating the conflict in the Middle East.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted a massive joint airstrike campaign targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, including the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader. This major military action against Iran set the tone for the conflict and influenced market expectations about US military engagements in 2026.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting military and nuclear sites
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and command centers. This marked the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalated US military action in the region, increasing the count of countries involved in US strikes to include Iran.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israel launch massive coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets
12 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and others. This marked a major escalation and set the stage for retaliatory strikes and increased US military activity in the region, significantly impacting market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries.
Feb 27 2026
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets as part of Operation Epic Fury, marking the start of intensified military action against Iran. This event increased market expectations of US strikes on Iranian soil, influencing the market towards lower numbers of countries targeted.
Feb 1 2026
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Somalia
On February 1, 2026, US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, marking US military action on Somali soil as part of counterterrorism operations.
Jan 16 2026
Putin offers to mediate Middle East tensions after calls with Israel and Iran
7 drops to 39%7%
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli and Iranian leaders, pitching Russia as a mediator amid regional tensions and U.S. threats of strikes on Iran. This diplomatic move suggested a de-escalation in U.S. military action in the Middle East, reducing market expectations for U.S. strikes on multiple countries.
Jan 10 2026
US and Jordanian forces conduct second wave of airstrikes on ISIS positions in Syria
On January 10, 2026, US and Jordanian forces launched a second wave of airstrikes on dozens of ISIS positions near Deir ez-Zor, Syria, using over 90 munitions. This was part of an ongoing campaign against ISIS in Syria and Iraq following a December ambush that killed two US soldiers.
Jan 10 2026
US launches retaliatory strikes against ISIS in Syria after deadly ambush
In response to an ambush killing US personnel, the US launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, continuing military operations in the country.
Jan 7 2026
US launches airstrikes on militant camps in Nigeria's Sokoto state
9 rises to 13%3%
The US military conducted airstrikes targeting Lakurawa militant camps in northwestern Nigeria, marking a direct military action on Nigerian soil. This event increased the likelihood of the US conducting strikes in Nigeria, affecting the market's assessment of the number of countries targeted.
Jan 3 2026
US conducts large-scale military strike in Venezuela, captures Maduro
7 drops to 39%7%
The US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, marking a direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This event confirmed at least one country where the US initiated military strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market probabilities.
Jan 3 2026
US launches military operation extracting Maduro from Venezuela
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that extracted President Maduro and his wife from Caracas, marking a significant US military action in South America.
Dec 25 2025
US Africa Command launches airstrikes in Nigeria targeting Islamic State militants
9 plunges to 3%44%
On Christmas night 2025, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes in Sokoto State, Nigeria, targeting Islamic State terrorists. This marked the first American combat action inside Nigeria and was acknowledged as a significant escalation in US military involvement there.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters.
The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Jun 26 2026
US launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets after drone attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 36%12%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This marked a significant escalation and reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
Jun 26 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
8 jumps to 15%10%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz, retaliating for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. This was the third such strike in three weeks, confirming US military action limited to Iran.
Jun 26 2026
US launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
9 jumps to 36%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites near the Strait and on Qeshm Island, marking the latest US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
Jun 26 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
9 jumps to 34%9%
The US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz on June 26, 2026, in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. This confirmed continued US military action on Iranian soil during 2026, reinforcing market expectations for strikes in Iran only.
Jun 19 2026
US Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
On June 19, 2026, US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia in coordination with the Somali government. This continued the US campaign against Islamist militants in East Africa.
Jun 3 2026
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian targets after missile and drone attacks
12 dips to 3%2%
On June 3, 2026, the US military carried out strikes against Iranian military facilities on Qeshm Island in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries. This escalation reinforced the US military presence and strike activity in multiple countries in the region.
Jun 1 2026
US bombs Iranian military sites and downs missiles fired at troops in Kuwait
The US bombed radar and drone sites in Iran after Tehran shot down an American drone. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on US troops in Kuwait, which were intercepted. This event confirmed ongoing US strikes on Iranian soil only.
May 27 2026
US conducts new strikes on Iranian military site and drones near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 11%4%
On May 27, 2026, the US military carried out strikes on an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down Iranian attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming ongoing US military action solely on Iranian territory.
May 15 2026
US and Nigeria begin joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria launched joint military operations including airstrikes against Islamic State West Africa Province and Boko Haram militants in northeastern Nigeria, marking US military action on Nigerian soil.
May 15 2026
US and Nigerian forces launch joint military operation with airstrikes against ISWAP in Nigeria
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria began a joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria, including special forces raids and multiple rounds of airstrikes. This operation killed senior ISWAP leaders and intensified US military involvement in Nigeria.
May 7 2026
US strikes Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island
In response to missile, drone, and boat attacks on US destroyers, the US conducted strikes on Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This reinforced the market's view that US military action was confined to Iran.
May 7 2026
US launches missile and drone strikes on Iranian military facilities
10 rises to 19%4%
The US military launched strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for attacks on US forces, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil. This event influenced market prices by increasing the perceived number of countries targeted by US strikes.
May 1 2026
US disables Iranian oil tankers amid renewed missile and drone attacks in Gulf
12 dips to 3%2%
The US Central Command disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to reach Iranian ports, enforcing a naval blockade. This action coincided with fresh missile and drone attacks reported by the UAE, indicating ongoing US military operations in the Gulf region and sustaining market expectations for strikes in multiple Middle Eastern countries.
Mar 12 2026
US conducts multiple airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq
Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, the US has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces. These strikes have killed dozens of militia members and targeted multiple bases across Iraq.
Mar 3 2026
US conducts strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown
12 dips to 2%3%
Following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US military launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites on Qeshm Island and Goruk. This action escalated hostilities and was part of ongoing US military operations against Iran, influencing market prices for strikes in the Middle East.
Mar 3 2026
Drone strikes near US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait amid escalating conflict
12 dips to 2%3%
Drone activity targeted areas near US diplomatic compounds in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, leading to heightened security alerts and embassy closures. This expansion of conflict zones to include diplomatic sites underscored the widening scope of US military involvement in the region.
Mar 3 2026
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
12 dips to 2%3%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, marking a sharp escalation and retaliation for US strikes. These attacks increased regional tensions and the likelihood of further US military responses in multiple countries.
Mar 3 2026
Trump administration expands counterterrorism operations including strikes in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia
In early 2026, the Trump administration approved the expansion of counterterrorism operations that included bombing targets in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia, reflecting a broader military engagement across multiple countries.
Mar 1 2026
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 drops to 7%7%
The US intensified its air campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, demonstrating sustained military action exclusively against Iranian targets in early March 2026.
Mar 1 2026
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 drops to 0%5%
The US intensified its bombing campaign against Iranian military sites using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, reinforcing the focus on Iran and limiting expectations of strikes in other countries.
Mar 1 2026
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to attacks
9 jumps to 8%5%
Following the initial strikes, the US continued targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and radar sites, responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases and allies in the region. This sustained campaign confirmed ongoing US military action on Iranian soil.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israeli forces launch massive strikes on Iranian military targets
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This included strikes on Iranian military and government sites, escalating the conflict in the Middle East.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted a massive joint airstrike campaign targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, including the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader. This major military action against Iran set the tone for the conflict and influenced market expectations about US military engagements in 2026.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting military and nuclear sites
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and command centers. This marked the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalated US military action in the region, increasing the count of countries involved in US strikes to include Iran.
Feb 28 2026
US and Israel launch massive coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets
12 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and others. This marked a major escalation and set the stage for retaliatory strikes and increased US military activity in the region, significantly impacting market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries.
Feb 27 2026
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets as part of Operation Epic Fury, marking the start of intensified military action against Iran. This event increased market expectations of US strikes on Iranian soil, influencing the market towards lower numbers of countries targeted.
Feb 1 2026
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Somalia
On February 1, 2026, US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, marking US military action on Somali soil as part of counterterrorism operations.
Jan 16 2026
Putin offers to mediate Middle East tensions after calls with Israel and Iran
7 drops to 39%7%
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli and Iranian leaders, pitching Russia as a mediator amid regional tensions and U.S. threats of strikes on Iran. This diplomatic move suggested a de-escalation in U.S. military action in the Middle East, reducing market expectations for U.S. strikes on multiple countries.
Jan 10 2026
US and Jordanian forces conduct second wave of airstrikes on ISIS positions in Syria
On January 10, 2026, US and Jordanian forces launched a second wave of airstrikes on dozens of ISIS positions near Deir ez-Zor, Syria, using over 90 munitions. This was part of an ongoing campaign against ISIS in Syria and Iraq following a December ambush that killed two US soldiers.
Jan 10 2026
US launches retaliatory strikes against ISIS in Syria after deadly ambush
In response to an ambush killing US personnel, the US launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, continuing military operations in the country.
Jan 7 2026
US launches airstrikes on militant camps in Nigeria's Sokoto state
9 rises to 13%3%
The US military conducted airstrikes targeting Lakurawa militant camps in northwestern Nigeria, marking a direct military action on Nigerian soil. This event increased the likelihood of the US conducting strikes in Nigeria, affecting the market's assessment of the number of countries targeted.
Jan 3 2026
US conducts large-scale military strike in Venezuela, captures Maduro
7 drops to 39%7%
The US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, marking a direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This event confirmed at least one country where the US initiated military strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market probabilities.
Jan 3 2026
US launches military operation extracting Maduro from Venezuela
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that extracted President Maduro and his wife from Caracas, marking a significant US military action in South America.
Dec 25 2025
US Africa Command launches airstrikes in Nigeria targeting Islamic State militants
9 plunges to 3%44%
On Christmas night 2025, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes in Sokoto State, Nigeria, targeting Islamic State terrorists. This marked the first American combat action inside Nigeria and was acknowledged as a significant escalation in US military involvement there.
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«How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 16 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «8» с 35%, за ним следует «9» с 31%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 35¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 35%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $1.5 million с момента запуска рынка Nov 13, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?», просмотри 16 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?» — «8» с 35%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 35%. Следующий ближайший исход — «9» с 31%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $1.5 million по “How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 35¢ для «8» на рынке «How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «8» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 35%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 35¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 65¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?» запланирован к разрешению примерно Dec 30, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?» имеет активное сообщество из 34 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
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