**No US ally is positioned to acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2026.** Allies such as South Korea and Japan face ongoing regional threats from North Korea and China, prompting public debate and polling support for independent capabilities, yet governments continue to prioritize the US nuclear umbrella and alliance commitments. Recent US statements have reaffirmed extended deterrence, including at the 2026 Munich Security Conference, while New START’s February 2026 expiration has not triggered allied breakout programs. Technical hurdles, NPT constraints, and the short timeline further limit near-term weaponization, even amid discussions of enrichment capabilities or burden-sharing. These factors underpin trader consensus that no ally will cross the threshold before 2027 absent major unforeseen shocks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$51,592 Объем
$51,592 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$51,592 Объем
$51,592 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
**No US ally is positioned to acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2026.** Allies such as South Korea and Japan face ongoing regional threats from North Korea and China, prompting public debate and polling support for independent capabilities, yet governments continue to prioritize the US nuclear umbrella and alliance commitments. Recent US statements have reaffirmed extended deterrence, including at the 2026 Munich Security Conference, while New START’s February 2026 expiration has not triggered allied breakout programs. Technical hurdles, NPT constraints, and the short timeline further limit near-term weaponization, even amid discussions of enrichment capabilities or burden-sharing. These factors underpin trader consensus that no ally will cross the threshold before 2027 absent major unforeseen shocks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$51,592Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
**No US ally is positioned to acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2026.** Allies such as South Korea and Japan face ongoing regional threats from North Korea and China, prompting public debate and polling support for independent capabilities, yet governments continue to prioritize the US nuclear umbrella and alliance commitments. Recent US statements have reaffirmed extended deterrence, including at the 2026 Munich Security Conference, while New START’s February 2026 expiration has not triggered allied breakout programs. Technical hurdles, NPT constraints, and the short timeline further limit near-term weaponization, even amid discussions of enrichment capabilities or burden-sharing. These factors underpin trader consensus that no ally will cross the threshold before 2027 absent major unforeseen shocks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$51,592Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No US ally is positioned to acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2026.** Allies such as South Korea and Japan face ongoing regional threats from North Korea and China, prompting public debate and polling support for independent capabilities, yet governments continue to prioritize the US nuclear umbrella and alliance commitments. Recent US statements have reaffirmed extended deterrence, including at the 2026 Munich Security Conference, while New START’s February 2026 expiration has not triggered allied breakout programs. Technical hurdles, NPT constraints, and the short timeline further limit near-term weaponization, even amid discussions of enrichment capabilities or burden-sharing. These factors underpin trader consensus that no ally will cross the threshold before 2027 absent major unforeseen shocks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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