US extended deterrence commitments, reaffirmed in early 2026 National Defense Strategy documents and allied dialogues, continue to reduce incentives for independent nuclear programs among partners. Saudi Arabia's civil nuclear cooperation framework with the United States, advanced through 2025-2026 negotiations on a potential 123 agreement, centers on power reactors and safeguards rather than weapons capabilities, with no verified shift toward armament. South Korea and Japan maintain strong nonproliferation policies despite regional tensions, relying on alliance arrangements and facing domestic, legal, and technical barriers that preclude rapid weaponization. The compressed timeline to 2027 further limits feasibility, as no ally has announced or initiated steps toward acquisition in recent months. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$51,651 Объем
$51,651 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$51,651 Объем
$51,651 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments, reaffirmed in early 2026 National Defense Strategy documents and allied dialogues, continue to reduce incentives for independent nuclear programs among partners. Saudi Arabia's civil nuclear cooperation framework with the United States, advanced through 2025-2026 negotiations on a potential 123 agreement, centers on power reactors and safeguards rather than weapons capabilities, with no verified shift toward armament. South Korea and Japan maintain strong nonproliferation policies despite regional tensions, relying on alliance arrangements and facing domestic, legal, and technical barriers that preclude rapid weaponization. The compressed timeline to 2027 further limits feasibility, as no ally has announced or initiated steps toward acquisition in recent months. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$51,651Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments, reaffirmed in early 2026 National Defense Strategy documents and allied dialogues, continue to reduce incentives for independent nuclear programs among partners. Saudi Arabia's civil nuclear cooperation framework with the United States, advanced through 2025-2026 negotiations on a potential 123 agreement, centers on power reactors and safeguards rather than weapons capabilities, with no verified shift toward armament. South Korea and Japan maintain strong nonproliferation policies despite regional tensions, relying on alliance arrangements and facing domestic, legal, and technical barriers that preclude rapid weaponization. The compressed timeline to 2027 further limits feasibility, as no ally has announced or initiated steps toward acquisition in recent months. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$51,651Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US extended deterrence commitments, reaffirmed in early 2026 National Defense Strategy documents and allied dialogues, continue to reduce incentives for independent nuclear programs among partners. Saudi Arabia's civil nuclear cooperation framework with the United States, advanced through 2025-2026 negotiations on a potential 123 agreement, centers on power reactors and safeguards rather than weapons capabilities, with no verified shift toward armament. South Korea and Japan maintain strong nonproliferation policies despite regional tensions, relying on alliance arrangements and facing domestic, legal, and technical barriers that preclude rapid weaponization. The compressed timeline to 2027 further limits feasibility, as no ally has announced or initiated steps toward acquisition in recent months. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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