US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through ongoing bilateral and trilateral dialogues with allies such as South Korea and Japan, remain the primary factor anchoring trader expectations against any new nuclear acquisition. Governments in Seoul and Tokyo continue to reaffirm NPT obligations and prioritize alliance-based arrangements over independent programs, despite domestic polling on security concerns. No official announcements, fissile material production decisions, or capability milestones have occurred that would enable possession by December 31, 2026. The short remaining timeline, combined with technical, diplomatic, and alliance constraints on rapid proliferation, sustains the 92.8% implied probability on "No." Scheduled extended deterrence consultations and US nuclear modernization efforts further align with this consensus by addressing ally assurance without independent arsenals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$163,007 Объем
$163,007 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$163,007 Объем
$163,007 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through ongoing bilateral and trilateral dialogues with allies such as South Korea and Japan, remain the primary factor anchoring trader expectations against any new nuclear acquisition. Governments in Seoul and Tokyo continue to reaffirm NPT obligations and prioritize alliance-based arrangements over independent programs, despite domestic polling on security concerns. No official announcements, fissile material production decisions, or capability milestones have occurred that would enable possession by December 31, 2026. The short remaining timeline, combined with technical, diplomatic, and alliance constraints on rapid proliferation, sustains the 92.8% implied probability on "No." Scheduled extended deterrence consultations and US nuclear modernization efforts further align with this consensus by addressing ally assurance without independent arsenals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$163,007Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through ongoing bilateral and trilateral dialogues with allies such as South Korea and Japan, remain the primary factor anchoring trader expectations against any new nuclear acquisition. Governments in Seoul and Tokyo continue to reaffirm NPT obligations and prioritize alliance-based arrangements over independent programs, despite domestic polling on security concerns. No official announcements, fissile material production decisions, or capability milestones have occurred that would enable possession by December 31, 2026. The short remaining timeline, combined with technical, diplomatic, and alliance constraints on rapid proliferation, sustains the 92.8% implied probability on "No." Scheduled extended deterrence consultations and US nuclear modernization efforts further align with this consensus by addressing ally assurance without independent arsenals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$163,007Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through ongoing bilateral and trilateral dialogues with allies such as South Korea and Japan, remain the primary factor anchoring trader expectations against any new nuclear acquisition. Governments in Seoul and Tokyo continue to reaffirm NPT obligations and prioritize alliance-based arrangements over independent programs, despite domestic polling on security concerns. No official announcements, fissile material production decisions, or capability milestones have occurred that would enable possession by December 31, 2026. The short remaining timeline, combined with technical, diplomatic, and alliance constraints on rapid proliferation, sustains the 92.8% implied probability on "No." Scheduled extended deterrence consultations and US nuclear modernization efforts further align with this consensus by addressing ally assurance without independent arsenals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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